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Monthly Outlook
Close the Monthly Outlook boxPublished at 09:00 on 7th December
All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)
(Next update at 09:00 on 14th December)
Written by Rob McElwee
Summary
A wet start but then a cold and dry spell
For a few weeks we've had Atlantic depressions, giants of their class, supplying regular rain and significant wind.
As European temperatures drop, stubborn cold air looks like blocking such Atlantic weather. The consequence for us is likely to be dry, frosty and foggy weather.
Monday 7 December 2009 to Sunday 13 December 2009
Rain now but frost and fog by Friday
Monday and Tuesday bring two bouts of rain with cumulative amounts of around 40mm each time across virtually all of the UK. There is no immediate concern of flooding.
Wednesday to Friday sees sunshine and showers and winds dropping. Thursday night looks frosty and probably foggy. Some fog in England may not clear at all on Friday.
The weekend looks like staying dry, and bright or sunny but cold.
Monday 14 December 2009 to Sunday 20 December 2009
Probably staying drier and colder than of late
The probabilities have changed for this week and now favour continued quiet weather, i.e. light breezes, bright or sunny conditions, and dry days following frosty nights. Fog is less likely.
There is a very slight possibility of a chilling southeasterly breeze coupled with frontal rain in Scotland.
Monday 21 December 2009 to Sunday 3 January 2010
This bit covers Christmas Day!
And as usual there is no strong probability of either wet or white!
Indications are for below average temperatures, but for most at least an average amount of rain. So more often than not we will have high pressure giving us frost and sunshine, but with one or two incursions of frontal rain.
If a cold southeasterly wind met Atlantic rain over us then you have the pretty white scenario. Sadly, there is no reason to forecast this at the moment.
Next week
Will it be wet or white?
Monthly forecasting
The weather beyond about a week ahead stretches even the most experienced weather forecaster. Complex numerical weather forecast models from the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are run many times for the month (and season) ahead to build up a picture of the likelihood of different weather types affecting the UK.
BBC Weather in association with the Met Office
All times are GMT (Europe/London, GMT+0000)
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