Polls point to Labour repeat

		By David Cowling Editor, BBC political research

Two election day polls have been published: MORI/Times has Labour on 45% (down 3% on one week ago), the Conservatives unchanged on 30% and the Lib Dems on 18% (up 2%). A Labour lead of 15%.

Gallup/Telegraph gives Labour 47% (unchanged from one week ago), the Conservatives 30% (down 1%) and the Lib Dems 18% (up 2%). A Labour lead of 17%.

MORI found 65% of respondents saying they were certain to vote in the general election.

And when it came to deciding which of the three main party leaders would make the most capable Prime Minister, 51% chose Tony Blair and both William Hague and Charles Kennedy were nominated by 14% of respondents.

So, the die is cast.

Whatever the outcome of the election we have the final polls of the four main companies: NOP gave a 17% Labour lead in the Sunday Times, ICM gave an 11% lead in the Guardian on Wednesday, MORI a lead of 16% in the Times and Gallup one of 17% in the Telegraph, both on Thursday.

Thus, it appears to be ICM versus the field.

In the final polls of the 1997 campaign, ICM came closest to the Labour share of the vote.

If they do so this time then Labour will receive broadly the same vote share as four years ago (44%).

If the other pollsters are right then Labour should anticipate an increased majority.