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Can you predict a revolution?

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We are eight years away from revolution: that is according to the science of cliodynamics.

This is the analysis of rise and fall of empires using mathematical tools to come up with laws of history.

This theoretical approach has been pioneered by Professor Peter Turchin of the University of Connecticut.

He told the Today programme's business presenter, Simon Jack, what generally preceded revolution or war.

"It's the elites that cause civil wars" he explained.

"When the elites become disgruntled and start infighting between themselves… that's what causes the problems."


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