Group One sees three teams on five points, with Madagascar, Zambia and Namibia all rating their chances of reaching Mali highly.
Madagascar are all but certain to appear at their first Finals if they beat Zambia in Antananarivo on Saturday, and will look back to a 2-1 upset win against the Zambians early on in qualifying to prove they can do it.
The Malagasy only lost 1-0 in Nigeria last time out, and the fact they did not concede a crucial second goal means even a draw will keep them ahead of Chipolopolo on goals scored.
However, a draw would allow Namibia to sneak second spot and, although they face Nigeria, the strong west Africans have named an inexperienced, largely home-based team.
It would be no surprise therefore if the Brave Warriors won to give themselves a chance of only their second Finals after debuting at Burkina Faso '98.
In Group Three, Kenya are holding second spot but will have to produce a formidable performance to come away with the draw they need in Tunisia to keep the north African giants at bay.
Kenya held Morocco 1-1 at home last time, although they faded badly, and warmed up with another 1-1 scoreline against Egypt last weekend.
Gabon could still sneak in with an unlikely victory in Morocco.
Angola have only a slim chance of taking second spot in Group Four as they will expect to beat Burundi in Cabinda, but must hope Burkina Faso do not pick up the point they need at home to Algeria.
The Burkinabe are unlikely to fail against an Algerian side in transition that struggled to beat Angola 3-2 at home in the last round to secure their own spot.
The critical game in Group Six is DR Congo v Zimbabwe, with morale in great contrast in the two camps.
Under new coach Yuri Gavrilov, the Congolese picked up a valuable 0-0 draw in Lesotho and will be hot favourites at home against the Warriors.
Zimbabwe were desolate to concede a last-minute winner to Ghana in Harare when victory would have taken them to their first Nations Cup finals.
If that game ends as a draw, then Lesotho could become Finals debutants if they can pick up a point in Ghana.
The other matches are in groups which are settled, and many teams will field inexperienced sides as the trend continues towards including more home-based players.
Already qualified: Cameroon, Mali, Nigeria, South Africa, Liberia, Morocco, Algeria, Togo, Senegal, Ghana, Egypt, Ivory Coast