Southern stars dim northern lights

By Bryn Palmer

Played 20. Won 1. Lost 19.

As battles of the hemispheres go, it was not much of a contest.

The rugby world's axis has tipped so far towards the south in 2008 it is in danger of falling back on itself.

Only Wales offered a beacon of hope in an otherwise gloomy autumn for the northern hemisphere by beating one of the three Tri-Nations teams, Australia, on Saturday.

SIX NATIONS V TRI-NATIONS 2008 Total matches: 20 Points: North 251 South 593 Tries: North 21 South 61 Avge score: North 13-30 South

Scotland, France and Ireland, it should be remembered, have all enjoyed victories this year over World Cup semi-finalists Argentina, who enter Monday's draw for the 2011 tournament ranked fourth in the world.

England, should they choose to do so, could also clutch at the shortest of straws offered by their win over the Pacific Islanders.

But in matches against the "big three" of New Zealand (ranked first in the world rankings), South Africa (second) and Australia (third), the Six Nations sides have suffered badly.

So why has it been so grim up north, and why have the southern super-powers prevailed by such an emphatic margin?

And with Ian McGeechan attempting to pick a British & Irish Lions squad capable of beating world champions South Africa next summer, is there any hope the gap can be closed in time?

FITNESS FIRST

When Delon Armitage calmly slotted a penalty 50 minutes into England's defeat at Twickenham on Saturday, it was the first - and last - time the All Blacks conceded a point in the second half of any of their six tour matches.

For the record, they also went through their four Tests against the home nations without conceding a try.

Simon Shaw (L) and Nick Easter contemplate defeat against South Africa

After their 29-9 win in Cardiff, coach Graham Henry remarked: "Wales played exceptionally well in the first half but then probably ran out of a bit of petrol".

After the All Blacks' 32-6 win at Twickenham, England manager Martin Johnson fumed: "If you thought you were fit enough to compete in the Premiership or Europe, Test rugby is at a much greater level."

One theory is that the Experimental Law Variations (ELVs) trialled in the Super 14 and Tri-Nations tournaments this year have forced the southern hemisphere sides to up their fitness levels.

The propensity for awarding free-kicks, where players 'tap and go', rather than penalties for the same offences under the northern hemisphere's own ELVs, resulted in a much higher tempo, with little respite for kicks at goal or kicks to touch.

Statistical analysis of the Super 14 revealed the ball-in-play time was, on average, seven minutes longer (41.5 minutes) than under the old laws the previous season (34.5 minutes).

In other words, Aussies, Kiwis and South Africans are used to "playing for the full 80 minutes" - a regular lament of Six Nations coaches when their sides fail to do so - and are physically able to.

COMPOSURE IS KEY

How many times did you hear one of the home nations' coaches bemoaning their side's failure to "take the chances we created"?

Byrne celebrates his try in the victory over Australia in Cardiff

Until Shane Williams and Lee Byrne breached the Wallabies defence in Cardiff on Saturday, Italian centre Mirco Bergamasco was the only other back (also against Australia) from any of the Six Nations teams to have scored a try against one of the big three this autumn.

In 11 matches against the Tri-Nations teams this month, the hosts only scored six tries in all, the others coming from two forwards (England's Nick Easter and Scotland's Nathan Hines) crashing over from a metre out, and a penalty try for France against Australia.

Only Wales scored more than one try in a match.

"It has been the same for the last three weeks," lamented Martin Johnson on Saturday. "We are not as good as these teams in terms of composure."

Not just composure in terms of turning line breaks into tries either.

England also blatantly failed to interpret the way Alain Rolland was refereeing the contact area, and only succeeded in infuriating the Irishman, and themselves, with continued infringements.

"If you are not listening to the referee you are going to upset him," Johnson noted. "We paid the price."

MAINTAINING CONCENTRATION / 'MENTAL INTENSITY'

After New Zealand had driven England off their own ball at a scrum in the 58th minute on Saturday, leading to the game-breaking first try for Mils Muliaina, Johnson later put it down to "concentration".

"You can't lose it for even a second at this level," he said.

Likewise, after Wales saw a 9-6 half-time lead against the All Blacks become a 29-9 defeat, assistant coach Rob Howley, who will also be part of McGeechan's staff in South Africa with the Lions, reflected on why the hosts lost their first-half dominance.

"South Africa, Australia and New Zealand play each other so often in the Tri-Nations and we need to play with that same physical and mental intensity," he said.

"We try to re-enact it in training but you almost can't do it, especially in the contact area. It is a learning experience you can only get when you play the best."

BLAME THE WEATHER...

"Most of our top rugby is played in summer conditions," explained New Zealand coach Henry. "Because of that we probably play the game at a very high tempo; we have got used to playing that way.

"The weather in Britain and Ireland doesn't tend, most of the time, to lend itself to playing that way. There is a different mind-set."

So is it time for summer rugby then? Ditch those turgid forward battles on European mudheaps where the wings spend the whole game waiting for a pass. Move the Six Nations to the spring. Before you know it, every match will be a dazzling try-fest. Hmmm.

Point taken Graham, but has anyone been to Christchurch in June?

...OR THE SEASONS (THE RUGBY ONES THAT IS)

Ireland showed in New Zealand and Australia in June that with a full-strength squad, the northern hemisphere can compete with, if not beat, the southern giants early in their own Test season.

606: DEBATE This November has pretty much dispelled any thoughts that the Guinness Premiership and Heineken Cup prepare players for Test rugby better than the southern hemisphere tournaments SouthSeaIslander

Wales, even with key players from their Grand Slam side missing, also came mighty close to winning their second Test in South Africa.

England, for the past five years, have taken weakened squads to New Zealand, Australia and South Africa in June, and been ritually thrashed each time. As have France, the only other European side, historically, to have challenged the southern giants.

The ridiculously long seasons, and burnout, in those two countries are traditionally blamed for these unedifying contests, with the Celtic countries better able to manage their centrally-contracted players.

But with the new agreement now in place between the Rugby Football Union and the Guinness Premiership clubs designed to improve the management of elite players over a season, that excuse - in theory - will no longer wash for England at least.

PAY PACKETS? POWER? PRIORITIES? PASSION?

Graham Henry advanced the self-serving theory that because of all the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks accepting the superior salaries on offer from English and French clubs, home-grown talent is being held back in key positions.

But does that explain the lack of basic skills we have seen from England and other home nations in recent weeks?

New Zealand's Ma'a Nonu shrugs off the tackle of Ireland's Ronan O'Gara

Likewise the old theory that 'we don't make them like they do', that the big three are traditionally bigger and stronger, doesn't really hold water in these days of professionalism and gym bunnies.

Sure, nearly every Springbok, forward or back, is built like the proverbial outhouse, but the All Blacks and Wallabies are not innately larger than their northern counterparts.

More athletic, skilled, rugby savvy perhaps, but not bigger.

Perhaps, ultimately, the sheer rugby tradition of South Africa and New Zealand, in particular, makes defeat so unpalatable that they simply just have to win.

After all, that is what they have been doing, by and large, for the past 100 years or so, and even more so since professionalism.

Why should this year be any different?