Gambling is by its very nature all about taking risks, but some risks are clearly a darned sight more perilous than others are.
And it is with this in mind that I have just backed jockey Seb Sanders to overhaul front-running colleagues Jamie Spencer and Robert Winston to win their championship.
 |
SANDERS: SEASONAL WINNERS
2004: 165
2003: 101
2002: 123
TITLE RIVALS
|
Spencer is the 5-4 on favourite, with Winston at 7-4 against and my man on 4-1 with William Hill.
The rest are 14-1 or higher, including injured reigning champion Frankie Dettori (25s).
Were the 33-year-old Sanders to take the title, it would be his first, and while he trails Spencer and Winston by a significant margin, his position is actually quite remarkable.
So far, the stable for which he principally works, that of trainer Sir Mark Prescott, at Newmarket, has barely left the starting stalls. Yet, still Sanders is in third place.
Prescott has around 75 horses, a team that is believed to be brimming with potential, but at the moment they are below par.
Now, the risk is that that there is something seriously wrong with the string, in which case I will probably lose my investment on the stable jockey.
But recent Flat racing history indicates that this risk is low, and they will come right, and of course we are dealing with one of the great trainers.
Sir Mark Prescott is waiting for a change in fortune
|
Eventually, I don't think that Irishmen Spencer and Winston will see where Sanders went as he boots them home, north, south, east and west.
Born and bred in the English West Midlands, Sanders has gained a reputation of being the most hard working and reliable of riders.
Basically he doesn't make many mistakes, is generally in the right place at the right time and is about as strong as anybody in a close finish.
There has only been one British-born champion jockey in Britain (Kevin Darley, 2000) since the golden era of Lester Piggott, Willie Carson and Joe Mercer in the late 1970s/early 80s.
Seb Sanders looks to me like the man to bring the jockeys' crown home again.
Main opponents
Baby-faced Jamie Spencer, 25, from County Tipperary, married trainer's daughter Emma Ramsden in February, and is based at Newmarket.
His late father, George, owned and trained 1963 Champion Hurdler Winning Fair.
Now freelancing after one, generally disappointing season based in Ireland with Aidan O'Brien, he has set a fierce pace in the title race.
British Classic win: 2003 St Leger on Brian Boru.
Robert Winston is also 25 and from Dublin, where he learnt to ride on ponies that live virtually wild in parts of the north side of the city.
Now yo-yoing for the championship lead with Spencer, he was once written off by many after suffering drink and weight problems.
Still on police bail after being arrested as part of the investigation into alleged race fixing, he is based in Yorkshire.