Mission impossible for Bonds

Bonds' home run productivity has dropped dramatically

BBC Sport Online's Kevin Asseo explains why he believes Barry Bonds' challenge on Mark McGwire's single-season home-run record will falter.

San Francisco Giants' Barry Bonds hit his 47th home run of the year on Saturday, keeping him on track to challenge Mark McGwire's single-season record of 70 home runs.

No player has ever hit 47 home runs quicker than Bonds has this year.

At the same point in McGwire's record-breaking 1998 season, the St. Louis Cardinals' slugger had hit 45.

Given the statistics, it would appear that a run for the record is distinct possibility, but make no mistake, Barry Bonds will not hit 70 home runs.

Why not? There are several reasons:

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McGwire's logic

Although Bonds is ahead of McGwire's 1998 pace, bear in mind that McGwire's "magic number" was 62.

That was the total he needed to break Roger Maris' long-standing record of 61.

The difference between hitting 62 home runs and hitting 71 is enormous.

He's having a great, great year. But the second half is the toughest time

  Mark McGwire on Barry Bonds

McGwire was quoted in 1998 as saying, "Don't talk to me until I have 50 by September."

He knew the pressure during the season's last month would be almost too intense to bear.

Recently, McGwire reiterated those thoughts after being quizzed about Bonds' chances of surpassing his mark.

"I've told you guys, you have to wait until somebody gets to 60 by September and then you've got a story," he said.

"He's having a great, great year. But the second half is the toughest time."

As if on cue, Bonds's home run productivity has dropped dramatically since the season's halfway point.

After hitting at least 10 home runs in each of this season's first three months, he hit just six in the month of July.

The prospect of Bonds hitting 13 more home runs before the end of August seems highly unlikely.

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The media factor

Much as McGwire did for the better part of the 1998 season, Bonds has thus far refused to speak publicly about the home run chase.

Always scornful of the baseball press, Bonds is sure to become increasingly unsettled by the media attention, which will grow with every home run he hits.

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Wilting under pressure

Baseball is special in that there are a small number of individual accomplishments that have taken on legendary, almost mythical, significance.

The pressure facing a player in pursuit of one of those accomplishments is as intense as American sport has to offer.

For example, chasing the single-season home run record, Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hitting streak, or a .400 batting average has undone even the steeliest competitors.

McGwire only had to reach 62 in 1998

Now take into account that Bonds is considered one of baseball's all-time worst "pressure players" and it becomes clear that hitting 71 home runs will be all but impossible for him to achieve.

For an example of his inability to perform when the pressure is turned up, look at his statistics in the playoffs.

In the 27 postseason games in which Bonds has played, when the intensity is twofold that of the regular season, his numbers are nothing short of pathetic.

His playoff batting average is a dismal .196, with just one home run with six RBI to his credit.

Bonds has enjoyed a tremendous year, and he may indeed finish over the 60 mark, but this will not be the year that baseball crowns a new single-season home run king.