The ascent of Africa

Hicham El Guerrouj: The pride of Morocco

As far as a number of athletes in Sydney are concerned the question is not so much whether they will win, but by how much.

It seems inconceivable that Marion Jones will not be first across the line just under 11 seconds after the starters' gun blasts off the 100 metres.

Surely only the sort of injury that prevented Maurice Greene and Michael Johnson qualifying for the 200m will prevent them from taking gold in the 100 and 400 respectively.

Another sure thing about major championships is that while North Americans battle for the sprint medals, the middle and long distance gongs get contested by a private and exclusive band of African athletes.

Haile Gebrselassie holds the Olympic 10,000 title

Counting the Arabs from North Africa and the runners from the black African nations such as Kenya and Ethiopia, the statistics from recent Olympics are as conclusive as they are irrefutable.

Atlanta

At the last Olympics, the men's 1500m, 5000m, 10,000m, marathon and 3,000m steeplechase were all won by Africans.

To add further evidence to their dominance, seven of the ten silver and bronze medals from those events went to runners from the same continent.

And the dominance goes further back than a mere four years.

The Pole Bronislaw Malinowski has the honour of being the last non-Kenyan 3000m steeplechase runner to win an Olympic gold - and that was in 1980.

In 1992, the three Kenyan runners, led by Matthew Birir, completed a clean sweep of the medals and only the Italian bronze medallist Alessandro Lambruschini prevented a repeat in Atlanta.

Only one non-African has managed a medal in the men's 10,000m since 1988 and since the Ethiopian double gold medallist Miruts Yifter added the 5,000m to his 10,000m victory in 1980 only once has that event been won by an `outsider`.

The Africans first made their mark on the Olympic stage in the 1960s starting with the legendary marathon runner Abebe Bikila.

Abebe Bikila: Barefoot marathon man

The then unknown Ethiopian won gold in Rome in 1960 and did it barefoot. He became the first person to successfully defend the marathon title in Tokyo four years later but this time wore shoes.

Keino

Kip Keino of Kenya was another runner who broke barriers. In 1968 he entered the 1500m, 5000m and the 10,000.

Despite crippling stomach pains, Keino won silver in the 5,000 and gold in the 1500 after running a mile to the stadium having got caught up in a traffic jam.

The likes of Lasse Viren and Sebastian Coe ensured a more even geographical spread of middle and long-distance medals in the 1970s and early 1980s but that was before Said Aouita, Jose Thugwane, Joseph Keter and their peers burst on the scene.

In Sydney, the African dominance is set to continue led by two super-athletes, Hicham El Guerrouj and Haile Gebrselassie.

El Guerrouj holds three world records including a mile time of 3min 43.13sec which would have left Coe in his prime more than 30m adrift.

In Atlanta, just before the bell on the final lap of the 1500m El Guerrouj clipped the heel of the eventual winner, Algerian Noureddine Morceli, and tumbled to the track and out of contention.

He is overwhelming favourite to take gold this time but 21-year-old Noah Ngeny of Kenya should push him all the way.

Ethiopia's Gebreselassie, who has broken 15 world records, is expected to defend his Olympic 10,000m title while the 5,000 should be a battle between Paul Tergat of Kenya and Ali Saidi-Sief of Algeria.

And the nationality of the 3000m steeplechase winner? Well with five of the six top world ranked runners from Kenya, it doesn't take a genius...