Hayden faces Rossi challenge

By Steve Parrish BBC motorbikes commentator

Hayden will spend all weekend hearing the Jaws music in his ears as Rossi stalks around him Steve Parrish

It's the penultimate race of a thrilling MotoGP season and remarkably there is still all to play for.

Nicky Hayden is 12 points ahead of defending champion Valentino Rossi, but I don't think that is going to be enough for him.

Hayden will spend all weekend hearing the Jaws music in his ears as Rossi stalks around him.

The situation is very similar to that in Formula One between Fernando Alonso and Michael Schumacher.

I hope we don't have the same outcome as what happened when Schumacher virtually handed the title to Alonso when his engine failed last weekend.

I've a horrible suspicion something like that might happen this weekend in Portugal.

But ignore my pessimism - I'm just an optimist with experience.

The ideal scenario we are all praying for is that the result in Estoril means we travel to Valencia for the last race with three or four riders all still in with a shout of winning.

Realistically, though, it's a straight slug out between Hayden and Rossi but anything can happen under pressure, it's easy to make mistakes so the likes of Loris Capirossi or Dani Pedrosa could still come through.

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I feel for Hayden.

He is under huge, huge pressure and I wouldn't want to be in his position for anything.

What does he do tactically?

He is going to look an idiot if falls off trying to protect a lead, but he's also going to look like an idiot if he doesn't end up winning by not going fast enough.

He keeps saying he can't get the bike off the line quickly enough so Honda spent loads of time in Japan sorting that out with new clutches.

And his team will continue to throw everything that they've got at him to help him win.

Also in his favour is that 12-point advantage - surely he can go to Portugal and finish one place behind Valentino and still go to Valencia with a championship lead?

Easier said than done when you have the genius of Rossi to contend with.

It doesn't help that the Italian is realistically under no pressure at all after all his troubles earlier in the season.

It's amazing that he is still in the fight after being hampered by three non-finshes that he had no control over.

But that's what Yamaha are better than Honda at - reacting quickly as soon as they have problems.

They responded immediately to Rossi's teething troubles at the start of the season, he had a new chassis in place by Le Mans and since then he has been the fastest man out there.

He's done brilliantly to put himself where he is and now he can just go out there and ride the wheels off the thing.

Which is not what Nicky Hayden wants to hear.

Prediction: 1. Rossi 2. Capirossi 3. Melandri