Schumi can expect opposition

Plotting another title - who can stop Ferrari in 2002?

BBC motor racing correspondent Jonanthan Legard finds reason to believe that Ferrari's Michael Schumacher will not have it all his own way in 2002.

Michael Schumacher's 54th career victory at the climax of his fourth world championship year poses Formula One a simple question for the winter close season.

Who can stop him in 2002?

That presupposes that Ferrari and their champion driver will build on their dominance, not stumble.

Monaco was a microcosm of Coulthard's 2001 - will 2002 be better?

But judging by the rise in performance in 2001 after their historic breakthrough in 2000, there is every reason to believe that Team Todt - Jean Todt, Ross Brawn, Rory Byrne and Schumacher - will step up yet again.

Already they have talked bullishly about how next year's car looks to be even stronger.

And the ring of confidence that Schumacher wears so brightly these days is almost worth a head start of 20 points as it is.

So memo to Ron Dennis at McLaren: be ready to roll in Melbourne next March, not from Imola in April as has happened in the last two years when the red cars have stolen a march.

That said, McLaren's recovery from another double dose of disappointment will be complicated by the resurgence of the BMW Williams team.

The podium picture from Suzuka could prove a snapshot of the future. Schumacher, Juan Pablo Montoya and David Coulthard.

Vital season for Coulthard

The Scotsman keeps heading in the right direction. He has finished championship runner up for the first time and his pole position in Monaco was one of the finest of its type.

It was just his luck that his car faltered when it needed to fly. And he and Mika Hakkinen were left high and dry.

Next season he deserves better.

He'll have a new young team-mate, Kimi Raikkonen, snapping at his heels and anything less than outright command from Coulthard will do untold damage.

No wonder Ralf (right) looks upset - Montoya has him on the run

Assume, then, that technical director Adrian Newey doesn't produce another underachieving design, that Ilmor's new Mercedes engine is a significant step and that McLaren resolve their tyre contract sooner rather than later.

That means that Coulthard should have the right equipment to strike at Schumacher and establish outright team leadership.

Anything less and that long held championship dream will disappear, possibly taking with it his job - especially if Mika Hakkinen is champing at the bit to return after his sabbatical.

And that's not the end of Coulthard's problems.

The second half of 2001 became a showcase for the breakneck progress of Juan Pablo Montoya.

Superb overtaking moves

While his team-mate, Ralf Schumacher can point to favourable statistics - more points, more wins and better qualifying - Montoya's finishing flourish revealed undoubted championship class.

Blessed by fortune and reliability, Montoya could even emerge as Schumacher's strongest rival.

He now knows all the circuits. He has startled the champion with three breathless overtaking moves - Schumacher's one attempt in response took both into the gravel in Austria.

And, crucially, he's worked cleverly to unhinge Ralf Schumacher and get the Williams team on his side.

Will Trulli win with Renault in 2002?

For the moment, his team-mate is losing that battle badly. And like last year, after Jenson Button ended up getting the better of him, Ralf Schumacher needs to rethink, regroup and return with renewed application.

The letter dispatched by Frank Williams last week should pull him up short over his attitude towards sponsors as much as the team.

His debut pole in France and his three race wins proved his talent but he has yet to show he possesses the mental strength of a potential champion.

If that develops, however, there could yet be a four-way challenge for the title, and how many times has F1 been treated to that sort of show?

One other point - the manner in which Button and Giancarlo Fisichella closed 2001 suggests that if any team can make significant strides to attack Ferrari, McLaren and Williams, it will be Renault in their 2002 re-launch into F1.

Precedent against Schumacher

Button and his new team-mate, Jarno Trulli, could even get the sniff of victory.

For what it's worth, history counts against Michael Schumacher scoring a hat-trick of world titles.

Only one man, Juan Manuel Fangio has done it, back in 1957.

But after the style in which Schumacher rewrote the record books in 2001, it'll take a monumental effort - barring injury - to throw him off the scent in 2002.