Fourth time lucky?

Ian Dennis in Bratislava
BBC 5 Live commentator

The start of Northern Ireland's last three qualifying campaigns for a major tournament has seen them slip to 3-0 defeats - a fourth successive time does not bear thinking about.

Aaron Hughes missed the recent friendly against Scotland

A good start this time is imperative to build on the progress made during the Euro 2008 qualifiers and set the tone for what Nigel Worthington hopes will be a place at the World Cup finals in 2010.

I still remember the deflating experience of losing at home to Poland four years ago and the damaging defeat against Iceland at Windsor Park in 2006.

It reminded me of the line from the Burt Bacharach song, 'What do you get when you fall in love? A girl with a pin who bursts your bubble'.

So much hope and expectation, then all of a sudden it's gone.

The Euro 2008 qualifying campaign provided many memorable moments and with the strides that Northern Ireland have made, there is quite rightly plenty of optimism for this new campaign.

I only hope that such optimism does not raise false expectation levels - this qualifying campaign will prove to be just as difficult as Euro 2008 and Slovakia will provide a testing opening match.

Wales won here 5-2 last year while the Republic of Ireland, in the same Euro 2008 qualifying group, were denied victory in Slovakia with the hosts grabbing an injury-time equaliser in a 2-2 draw.

Although four consecutive defeats suggests a team out of form, the Slovaks will be keen to impress their new manager Vladimir Weiss in his first competitive game in charge.

I actually saw Slovakia dismantle Wales just two years ago in Cardiff with ruthless efficiency in a 5-1 hammering - and don't forget they reached the play-offs for the last World Cup in 2006.

The core of that squad still remains and Northern Ireland will need to watch Robert Vittek and Marek Mintal, who will pose a threat to Maik Taylor, while Liverpool's Martin Skrtel will try to keep David Healy quiet.

The atmosphere is always special for a midweek game at Windsor Park and everyone knows how hard it is for opposing teams to impose themselves BBC 5 Live's Ian Dennis

With Healy's prolific scoring record, Northern Ireland will be confident, especially after the solid display against Scotland in last month's friendly.

But there is more to this side than just Healy - which is why Northern Ireland are no longer regarded the laughing stock of international football.

Maik Taylor is dependable in goal, Aaron Hughes is reliable, Steven Craigan has been extremely consistent at this level, Johnny Evans was outstanding at Hampden while Steven Davis provides the quality in midfield.

Yet despite such individual talents and the undoubted progress Northern Ireland have made in the last couple of years, they need to address their dreadful away form in competitive matches if they are to be taken as serious contenders for a place in South Africa in two years time.

The victory in Liechtenstein during March 2007 was their first competitive success on their travels in five and a half years and it hasn't been matched since with away defeats to Latvia, Iceland and Spain, plus a draw in Sweden.

A repeat of the display against Scotland should give Northern Ireland every chance of avoiding defeat and provide a real lift ahead of the visit of group favourites, the Czech Republic, to Belfast on Wednesday.

The atmosphere is always special for a midweek game at Windsor Park and everyone knows how hard it is for opposing teams to impose themselves under the floodlights at Windsor Park.

If the players can avoid defeat on Saturday there is a great opportunity to build real momentum at the start of this campaign.

I would say four points from the first three games would be the minimum requirement ahead of the back-to-back matches with San Marino, with the predicted scenario of successive victories against the minnows providing 10 points at the halfway stage.

Anything more is a bonus, anything less leaves a lot of work to do, especially if the opening game ends in a 3-0 defeat.