A deceptive stage

BBC cricket correspondent Jonathan Agnew does not rate England's chances for the fourth Test, even though Headingley is a likely stage for an upset.

Headingley Tests are renowned for their unpredictability - it's the key ingredient on a ground that hosted the ultimate match against Australia 20 years ago as well as the extraordinary game against the West Indies last year that was completed in two days.

It is because of that, that this has always been the most likely opportunity for England to cause an upset and beat the Australians.

The fact that the pitch was covered throughout the day prior to the first day of the Test to prevent it from drying out, only adds to the intrigue.

Ideal track for Warne

Except, for once, it's possible that the spinners - and Shane Warne, in particular - might enjoy the conditions.

The master spinner needs only five more wickets to become the sixth bowler ever to take 400 in Test cricket and, while he has been happy to play down his chances of managing to complete that over the course of the five-day match, the truth is that the strip could almost have been prepared for him.

At least that is the way the strip looks and, as we all know, looks at Headingley can be cruelly deceiving.

It does mean Robert Croft is being seriously considered - spinners are usually only brought along to Leeds for the ride - and that, in itself, underlines the threat that Warne might pose.

England welcome back their captain, Nasser Hussain, but the batting line up has been changed again.

This time it seems that Alec Stewart might drop down to number 7 - a sign of things to come, perhaps.

He has yet to make up his mind about touring India this winter - although why it is being left up to him, I really do not know.

Afzaal's big chance

Why is it that a player is able to decide whether he turns out for England, or not? Surely that is the job of the selectors?

Usman Afzaal has a terrific opportunity to nail down the chance of a winter tour, although batting at Headingley can be a hazardous occupation.

If he is to make any impact, he will have to work out a means of combatting Warne, who stitched him up so magnificently at Edgbaston.

So this, we feel, really is the most reaslistic chance England has.

I would have said that back in May and nothing has happened in the meantime to change my mind, except that it has now become only the most remote of possibilities.

Australia are without their captain, but they do not give the impression of being a team in crisis and I expect them to march on to a 4-0 lead.