Who has the edge in the Ashes?

By Martin Gough

WHO HAS THE ASHES EDGE? Wednesday: What have we learnt so far? Thursday: What can the teams do to improve? Friday: How to win mind games Today: What lies ahead?

Lord's, Edgbaston and Old Trafford witnessed three of the most thrilling Ashes Test matches ever.

The series moves on to Trent Bridge next Thursday and concludes in south London at The Oval from 8-12 September.

This week, BBC Sport has been looking in depth at the issues facing both teams to assess who might come out on top.

Does Ashes history, particularly at these two grounds, offer any clues?

WHAT LIES AHEAD? TRENT BRIDGE

If England were looking for a ground to favour them as they came into the business end of the series, they should not have picked Trent Bridge for the fourth Test.

Of the current home venues, Nottingham is their least successful, with 15 wins from 50 Tests, just one better than the combined total of victories by their various opponents.

TRENT BRIDGE STATS Tests 51 Eng wins: 15 Eng losses: 14 Draws: 22 Wins batting first: 15 Wins batting second: 14 Stats include Aus v SA draw in 1912

And of those opponents, Australia have done better than any other side, with seven wins in 20 matches.

England have not beaten their arch-rivals there since 1977, when Ian Botham made his Test debut.

The ground hosted a match that has come to symbolise Australia's 18-year Ashes reign, when Mark Taylor and Geoff Marsh batted through the entire first day in 1989, reaching 301 without loss.

Their total of  602-6 declared is the fourth-highest ever on the ground.

Add to those demon stats the performance of Aussie spinner Shane Warne at the ground. In three matches he has taken 21 wickets at an average of 18.14.

Recent history favours England, though. In the 10 years prior to this season, Australia are the only side they have lost to in Nottingham and England have four wins from eight other matches.

Last year saw the renaissance of Ashley Giles as England beat New Zealand to claim the series 3-0.

Having contemplated retirement in the midst of serious depression at the start of last summer, the left-arm spinner Giles emerged as an attacking force, who would go on to dominate the rest of the summer.

He took 4-46 to help bowl the Black Caps out for 218 and shared in a crucial seventh-wicket stand of 70 to take England to victory.

That is one of nine matches of 23 in the last 30 years won by the side batting second, compared to five won by the side taking strike first, perhaps hinting that the pitch calms down as the match goes on.

WHAT LIES AHEAD? THE OVAL

It was at The Oval in 1882 that England lost to Australia by seven wickets prompting a mock obituary bemoaning the death of English cricket, with the body cremated and the Ashes taken back to Australia.

It was also the site of the first Test on English soil, when England beat Australia by five wickets two years earlier, WG Grace scoring a hundred on debut.

THE OVAL STATS Tests: 87 Eng wins: 35 Eng losses: 18 Draws: 34 Aus wins: 6 of 33 Wins batting first: 30 Wins batting second: 23 here

There are omens for both sides, such as Australia's 701 in 1930 as Don Bradman (244) and Bill Ponsford (266) put on 451 for the second wicket, still a Test record for the ground.

England made 903-7 to beat the Aussies by an innings and 579 runs in 1938, and it was at this ground that Don Bradman was dismissed for a duck in 1948, pulling his Test average below 100 in his last match.

More recently there was Steve Waugh's century, made despite the pain of a torn left calf, at the end of Australia's last visit here in 2001.

The tourists made 641-4 declared to win the match by an innings and 25 runs.

Unsurprisingly, The Oval is considered the best batting pitch in the country, which is why tickets for the fifth day of the Test have already sold out.

Results are certainly not out of the question, although England have barely won more than they have drawn here, but a team looking to force a result would be better to aim for it at Trent Bridge.

To regain the Ashes, England must win the series. Australia, although it would be against their nature to try, need only to draw the last two matches to hold onto the urn.

For those looking for victory in South London, the best advice is to win the toss and bat ¿ 11 of 31 matches in the last 30 years have been won by the team taking strike first.

THE VERDICT

The best thing about this Ashes series is that it has tilted this way and that throughout.

Who will be smiling when the last ball has been bowled?

The unpredictability was typified by Glenn McGrath's freak ankle injury before the second Test, when he trod on a ball during warm-ups.

But over the last few days we have seen the scales tipped in England's favour in terms of the positives that have already come out of the side and the position they are in compared to Australia when considering selection for the last two games

Australia have done well at both of the remaining venues but England's home advantage and recent success means they will not go into either match tagged as underdogs.

The only thing swaying the balance of power back in Australia's favour is mind games, with our sports psychologist insisting the tourists will feel better than England after escaping with a draw at Old Trafford.

England can win the Ashes for the first time in 18 years; the only obstacle remaining is whether they truly believe they can.