UN expert finds grounds for optimism

By Andrew Harding
BBC News, Darfur

Refugees still pour into camps, but deaths are hard to prove

It's two months since Sudan's government expelled 13 foreign aid agencies from Darfur - a move many feared would trigger a new humanitarian catastrophe in a region where millions are dependent on outside help for survival.

But today, to the surprise of many involved, the situation has not yet deteriorated sharply, and some aid workers are privately wondering whether the recent upheavals may yet prove to be a blessing in disguise.

No one is suggesting that Darfur is on the mend.

This weekend, an ancient lorry struggled through a sandstorm and into a makeshift camp outside the town of El Fasher.

In the back, perched on top of their few possessions, sat some 20 children, women and an elderly men who explained that they had fled two days ago, from heavy fighting in the dry plains nearby.

They were following the example of some 40,000 other civilians who have sought refuge on the edge of Zam Zam camp this year.

'Life-saving gaps'

During a brief tour of the camp on Saturday, the United Nation's emergency relief coordinator, John Holmes, said the situation remained serious and fragile, and that the expulsion of aid organizations like Oxfam had "complicated" matters.

But Mr Holmes argued that most "life-saving gaps" in the relief operation had been filled, and that there was "no hard evidence" that anyone had actually died as a direct result of the expulsions.

The abrupt departure of 13 international aid organizations in early March was a brutal and alarming experience for those involved. It followed the ICC's decision to issue an arrest warrant for Sudan's President, Omar Hassan Ahmed Bashir.

President Omar al-Bashir ordered the agencies out in March

President Bashir described the aid workers as "thieves" and "spies". According to well-informed sources, some of them were subjected to mock executions before being flown out of the country.

The World Food Programme (WFP) and other UN agencies scrambled to shore up the relief effort. Significantly, the Sudanese authorities have also played a growing role.

"They're doing much more - in some areas up to 40% of the gap is now being filled by the government," said one aid source, describing it as a significant shift.

Cautious optimism

The security situation across Darfur remains very precarious, but according to UN figures, only 22 people were killed in April - that includes all forms of crime as well as military conflict.

Mr Holmes welcomed what he described as the "new flexibility" being shown by the authorities in Khartoum, regarding humanitarian access.

But he said the encouraging words still needed to be backed up by more concrete action.

Privately, other UN officials have gone further, arguing the operating environment in Darfur may actually be better now than it was before the expulsions, and welcoming the fact that the Sudanese government is being forced to take more of a role in the relief effort.

Still, Darfur remains a dangerously unpredictable place - plagued by instability, with no comprehensive peace deal in sight, and a third of the population unable to go home.