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Monday, 4 June, 2001, 18:55 GMT 19:55 UK
Labour victory expected

David Cowling

An NOP poll for ITN's Powerhouse programme shows that 79% of respondents expect a Labour victory on 7 June.

And it appears that the Conservatives do not have high hopes for their party's prospects - 78% of Tory respondents do not expect their party to win, and only 4% anticipate victory on election day.

Despite numerous opinion polls suggesting the contrary, only 31% of NOP's respondents think Labour will have a majority of more than 100 seats as a result of this election.

People vs polls

Almost half (48%) expect a Labour majority of 100 or less. Only 3% expect the Conservatives to win, whilst 8% anticipate a hung parliament.

We seem to have here a case of the People versus the Polls.

The campaign polls over the past four weeks have regularly registered voting intention figures suggesting Labour majorities that range from broadly the same as last time (179 seats) to well beyond 200 seats.

Yet almost half of the self-same public expect Labour's majority to be virtually halved.

Either the electorate knows something that assorted commentators and psephologists do not, or these answers reflect the fact that many people have no idea of Labour's current majority and believe that one of around 100 seats is already a landslide.

ICM interviewed 1,112 adults in England, Scotland and Wales between 29 May and 3 June, 283 by telephone and the rest by email.

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