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February's long range weather with Terry Scholey

Frosty countryside
Terry Scholey is predicting a month of mixed weather

General comments

February has always been a difficult month to predict and so it has proved right up to the present date. It now looks like being a milder period than first thought.

Although windy at times and unsettled in the first half, February is still expected to be drier than normal particularly in the east and south.

Here, mean average temperatures will probably be close to or perhaps slightly below normal, with the north and west often milder and wetter especially in the first half of the month.

Atlantic depressions should dominate the first half of the month, with drier, quieter weather generally prevailing in the second.


February 1st to 4th:
Milder with some rain or showers in most places particularly at first. It will be windy in the north, with gales possible over Scotland. Southern and central parts will be drier and brighter at times with somewhat lighter breezes, under relatively high pressure. Ground frost is possible in the east and south, with minimum temperatures say 1 to 4C. Daytime maximums should be between 7 and 10C.

February 5th to 8th:
Wet and windy at first especially in the north and west but very mild. Then colder and becoming mainly dry after some showers wintry on hills mainly in the north. Top temperatures 8 to 11C falling to 4 to 7C, with minimum values 5 to 8C falling to -2 to +2C giving slight frost in places for a time.

February 9th to 15th:
Generally mild and windy at times, with gales possible in the north and west. There will be showers and longer spells of rain, but also brief colder intervals when showers could be wintry giving hill snow in the north. Temperatures will vary with maximum values mostly in the range 7 to 11C, with minima generally between 2 and 5C but perhaps down to freezing in sheltered eastern areas particularly later in the period.

February 16th to 21st:
A change to a drier, quieter but somewhat colder weather type seems likely as pressure probably rises, although it could be unsettled and breezier briefly around the 18th/19th, particularly in the north and north-east where showers could turn wintry giving mainly hill snow. The south and west should have the best of the weather and probably become mainly dry apart from a few showers mid-period. Top temperatures should be in the range 5 to 8C, with minimum values say between -2 and +3C.

February 22nd to 28th:
Probably cold or rather cold to begin with, but mainly dry with overnight slight or moderate frost. The month is then expected to end on a very unsettled note, but there are at present two possibilities. Either high pressure slips to the west or north-west leading to northerly winds bringing raw conditions with some rain, sleet or snow towards the end of the month. The other possibility sees Atlantic systems moving in from the south-west bringing eventually milder weather again, with rain preceded by sleet or snow in the north and east. Maximum temperatures 3 to 6C should rise to 8 to 11C should the milder option be relevant. Minimum temperatures should be in the range -4 to +2C rising to 2 to 6C if it turns milder.

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