"South Wales East is another region where Labour votes can as well be weighed as counted. The party received two-thirds of the total votes here at the 1997 general election and almost three-quarters of them at the 1994 European Parliament election Indeed MEP Glenys Kinnock’s 120,247 majority in 1994 was the largest ever recorded at an election in Britain. The Liberal Democrats regularly get less than 10% of the vote here, with Plaid Cymru struggling to reach even half that figure. Plaid have made some inroads into the Labour hegemony at recent local elections, but are unlikely to be serious competitors at the Welsh Assembly level. With the opposition vote thinly divided across the region among three very weak opponents it is perfectly possible that Labour will even win ‘top up’ seats here. Monmouth, just across the border from England, is the exception to this pattern and the Tories’ number two target in Wales. It is the sort of seat the party should win in all normal electoral circumstances."