"Although Labour won all eight seats in South Wales Central at the 1997 general election the Conservatives have had some recent success in the suburbs and hinterland of Cardiff. They held Cardiff North, and its predecessor constituency, from 1974 until 1992 and Cardiff Central until 1987. The prosperous Vale of Glamorgan was lost at a 1989 by-election, but regained at the 1992 general election. Each of these constituencies will be a useful gauge of whether the Conservatives have recovered any lost ground in south Wales, but the omens do not look favourable. Polling evidence suggests that the Tories are no more popular now than at the general election. Their one crumb of comfort is that they were the only major party to oppose devolution at the referendum and they may attract some additional support from the nearly 50% of voters who agreed with them. Nonetheless it is highly likely that all their representation from the home area of the new Assembly will come in the form of ‘top up’ seats."