"The size of the Labour majorities in its heartland constituencies of South Wales West tell their own story. The party is unchallenged and should win all seven first past the post seats with ease. The goal for the Conservatives will be to hang on to second place sufficiently convincingly to garner the bulk of the ‘top up’ seats. To do that the Tories need to poll in excess of 20% of the total vote in the region - a tall order given their showing in 1994 and 1997. Luckily for them both the Liberal Democrats and Plaid Cymru are weak here, with one ‘top up’ seat each being the realistic limit of their ambitions."