INSIDE MONEY: PROGRAMME 6: “FAIR SHARES” Presenter: Lesley Curwen Producer: Jennifer Clarke First broadcast Saturday 24th August 2002 at 12.04 Repeated Monday 26th August 2002 at 15.02 THIS IS A TRANSCRIPT OF THE LONGER REPEATED VERSION Curwen: Some have called it a bloodbath, others say it was a reckoning which was long overdue. We’re talking about the massive volatility in the UK stock market we’ve seen in recent weeks and months. Overall the value of many shares has tumbled and that means the worth of people’s savings, endowment policies and pensions has fallen very significantly. The FTSE 100 share index has dropped by almost 40% from its peak shadowing a steep loss of confidence across the Atlantic on Wall Street where at one point the Dow Jones dropped 34% from its highest level. In fact, stock markets first began turning sour two years ago, but no-one thought they would carry on falling for this long, or that we would witness such steep falls this summer. The downturn came after more than a decade of rising share values led by burgeoning technology and internet companies. In the late ’90s we all heard the heady talk of a new era, how the old economic cycle of boom and bust was dead and how in the brave new world company profits and share values would keep on growing. Here’s just a flavour of the excitement of those times when the only way was up. Voice: “Since AOL floated back in 1992 the stock is up 76,000%.” Voice: “The performances have been staggering and they really are without precedent. CMG, a well established company, up by very nearly 200% over the course of the year. QXL, much smaller, pure internet, but that’s more than trebled since October. Arm Holdings, that’s risen by nearly 1,000% since the beginning of 1999.” Voice: “Eight weeks ago I put £7,000 into the Aberdeen Technology ISA and it’s now worth £10,500 which is an increase of 50%. It seems like money for old rope, it’s the ’90s equivalent of the gold rush and I hope that it continues to rise.” Voice: “The old credo of buy low, sell high no longer applies, it’s buy high, sell higher. I say there’s still plenty of gains to be made.” Curwen: That extract from a special edition of Money Box on the extraordinary rise of internet shares was recorded just ten days before the FTSE’s all time high, a shade under 7,000 points on the 30th December 1999. After that, the only way was down. Investors’ enthusiasm for technology and internet shares turned out to have been built on sand. The truth was many of these companies never made a profit and that dragged down stock markets worldwide. Then we began to see a downturn in the American economy and in the rest of the world. On September the 11th terrorist attacks in Washington and New York dealt a devastating blow to confidence and then investors faced up to a different kind of fear, that companies had been lying about how much money they were making. Last December, Enron, the giant US energy trader, collapsed and made accounting scandals and there was more to come this summer. Voice: “Share prices have fallen in London and New York in response to another massive corporate fraud in the United States. President Bush has promised a full investigation of accounting irregularities at the WorldCom telecommunications company.” Voice: “The impact on corporate America and the global economy will be severe. The dollar has already fallen sharply overnight. Stock markets in London and New York can expect a torrid day.” Voice: “The value of shares has fallen sharply in both London and New York. This afternoon the 100 share index fell below 4,000 for the first time in 5½ years. The latest plunge, the biggest one day fall since September the 11th, came on top of falls in share prices every day last week, wiping more than 90 billion pounds off the value of British businesses.” Voice: “If the stock market were a boxing match, the referee would have stopped the fight today to prevent battered investors from taking further punishment. As share prices tumbled yet again, the city was gripped by unremitting gloom. London shares are now more than 40% below their peak. The roof has not fallen in completely but there are big holes in the ceiling.” Curwen: Since the worst falls in mid July, the footsie 100 has regained several hundred points but leading stock market historian David Schwartz says past experience suggests this bounce back won’t last. Schwartz: Shares I expect will rise for the next year or two but a longer term trend, one that goes for say a decade, suggests trouble is ahead. History teaches us that there’s very very low profit odds in the decade that lies ahead. What this means is that somebody who can jump in and out can make money in the market but someone who cannot watch the market closely and jump in and out in a flash, the so-called buy and hold investor really has no business holding shares in the UK stock market in the decade that lies ahead. Curwen: Why not? Schwartz: Because the market is not going anywhere and the reason is we’ve had a huge price blow up in the 1980s and the 1990s and it takes a very very long time for shares to return to their historical average, and once they return to the level where they’re no longer inflated, they tend to drift for a while until investors, both institutions as well as private investors, start having the courage to jump in and these events take years to work their way out, it’s not a short period. Curwen: That’s bad news for people with pensions and any other share investments. Schwartz: Well it’s bad news if they’ve put their money in the stock market hoping for a re-run of the 1980s and 1990s because it’s highly unlikely for it to happen. The basic truth of the matter is that the stock market rises about 1% per year over the long run, much much less than what most people believe in and much much less than what we saw in the last twenty years. Curwen: So people’s expectations have just been wrong. Schwartz: Very wrong and it’s not just the little investor, it’s the institutions as well. Every time you read an article or hear a speech it’s always inflated expectations about the future. I really believe the market is going up in the year that lies ahead, but I also believe it’s not going to stay up. I think there’s going to be ebbs and flows with a lot of emphasis on the downside and it’s a risky place for somebody to be putting the bulk of their retirement money. Curwen: And this doom and gloom about shares is worrying ordinary investors. In many ways we’re the ones who own the stock market. Our pension funds and savings are its life blood. This disillusionment has been a running theme this year. The listeners who’ve helped to make Inside Money have told us they feel let down. The plunge in shares which underpin their investments has had a serious knock-on effect on their savings. Take Richard Uff who is so frustrated with potential returns from his personal pension that he wants to buy a property to let instead. He’s worried about whether his pension money is safe. Uff: With the highlights of WorldCom and Enron having just hit us all, one is obviously asking well, how many more out there? I’d much rather trust my own instincts to use my money than let somebody else who’s just playing a game with it really. They don’t know me and I don’t know them and they don’t have to answer to me either. So I like the idea of making my own decisions with my own money. Curwen: And listener Tony Abramson joined us to find out why he lost 90% of the money he put in shares of split capital investment trusts, a loss of £18,000. He’s angry that what was sold as a relatively safe investment turned out to be something quite different. Abramson: What’s happened is instead of getting the low risk investment I’d asked for, I’ve ended up taking a massive gamble, a gamble I had no idea I was taking. I feel as though I’ve entered a casino, it’s something I’ve never done before and I feel that some croupier somewhere is making the rules without explaining them to me. Curwen: Finally, Neil Wilkinson was facing a £17,000 shortfall on his endowment mortgage. He now wishes he’d never got involved in the stock market. Wilkinson: I didn’t want to be an investor, but I don’t see what choice I’ve got. I feel fairly powerless. I think the fund managers just do what they want. If they tell investors exactly what they’re doing and what risks they’re taking, then fair enough you’ve got the option to move it, but if they don’t tell you what they’re doing, then how can you be said to have accepted what they’ve done. Curwen: So a common theme among our listeners. They’re all disgruntled and dissatisfied with shares. With all this fear and uncertainty, should anyone be investing in the stock market. Joining me to discuss this is David Kauders from Kauders Portfolio Management; Brian Tora from Gerard’s Stock Brokers; from the Consumers Association, Mick McAteer; and Christine Farnish, Chairman of the National Association of Pension Funds, who was formerly the Financial Regulator at the Financial Services Authority. Curwen: David Kauders, let’s start with you. You’ve been saying for years that shares aren’t necessarily right for most people. Why not? Kauders: Because we live in a society in which politicians have encouraged the growth of credit and that credit has given us easy answers in getting out of recessions and it’s also helped boost asset values and that is share prices. Now unfortunately, it’s a game that’s come to an end, and if you look at the east at Japan, the game to an end about ten years earlier there. So we have a model which we can apply to say what is likely to happen is lower share prices and lower interest rates, not perfectly together, but if you stand back from the day by day, week by week stories and look at the overall picture over a period of ten or fifteen years, those are the long-term trends. We’ve had them now for nearly three years, I think they’ve got a long way to go. Curwen: So what would you advise people to invest in instead? Kauders: Well the first thing to do is to actually pay down any debt, any mortgages, credit card accounts and such like. Then build up cash reserves and then go into government securities gilts, fixed interest so you can project today’s yields into a future which is going to be ever lower interest rates. Curwen: Brian Tora, why not tell people to invest in bonds and gilts where the rate of return is fixed, why take a risk on shares when the returns are so poor, and as we heard from stock market historian, David Schwartz, the markets may be depressed for some years? Tora: I wouldn’t say that government bonds are without risk. The sort of situation that David is suggesting, it relies upon inflation not actually coming back to haunt us. We’ve had high inflation in the past and believe me in periods of high inflation, investment in bonds has been a very very poor way of putting your money to work. So I think that the real answer is diversification. In theory over the long run, you should get a better return from shares than you will get from either bonds or indeed from cash. That’s over the long run. The reality is that share markets over react in both directions. They go up too far, they come down too far as well. So you’ve got to accept that it’s very much a long-term place to put your money in. Curwen: So are you saying then that it’s a good time to buy shares? Tora: I’d rather buy shares near to 4,000 on the FTSE 100 index than I would have done at near to 7,000. So you’ve got to accept that when you buy you should be buying when most people are selling and that’s the strange thing about the stock market. The original Nathan Meyer Rothschild said, “you should sell when the violins are playing and buy when the canons are thundering” and the reality is it means you’ve got to go against what the majority of people are doing. Curwen: So David, it’s a good time to buy? Kauders: No, it’s not. First of all the history of the stock market is that when a great bear market comes round investors do lose interest totally in what it’s all about as we’re seeing now. Curwen: And by bear market you mean where we’ve got prices falling. Kauders: Where share prices fall, and the cycle has to go right through until the market is hated and there’s no-one left in it who’s got disposable money that they could sell. We’re not at that point yet by any means. Curwen: But how do we know that? Kauders: Well we look for falls in share prices of 75 to 90% because that’s what’s happened in past cycles. We look for low single figure price earnings ratios, we’re not there yet, and double figure dividend yields, we’re not there yet either. Those are the conditions in which you’ll see a major turning point and I would say that’s something like ten years away. Curwen: Christine Farnish, all these surely are reasons why pension funds shouldn’t take risks, why are pension funds investing in shares? Last year Boots pension fund put all its money into bonds which give a fixed rate of return. Isn’t that safer? Farnish: Well I think I’m on the same side of this debate as Brian, after all if anyone needs to take a long-term perspective on investment pension funds do and pension funds because of their size and their ability to look long-term into the future and their responsibility to invest long- term in the overall interest of their members have the opportunity to look at all the different sorts of places where money can be invested and to have a balanced portfolio that spreads risk and diversifies that risk across and looks to where long-term rewards can be made. And from what I’ve seen and from what just about all the professional investment managers I talk to say, stocks and shares are a very good place to be for quite a sizeable chunk of that portfolio in the long-term. Curwen: But if we’re looking at maybe ten years ahead, we’ve heard that there could be falling prices that far ahead. Isn’t this really a gamble with people’s retirement money? Farnish: Well very few pension funds would be looking ten years ahead, unless you just happen to be managing a fund where just about all of the workforce were about to come up to retirement and it’s got a pretty skewed age profile. Most pension funds are looking far far further ahead than just ten years. Curwen: Mick McAteer from the Consumers Association. We’ve heard what our Inside Money listeners had to say about feeling let down. Are they right, have they been let down by shares? McAteer: Well I think the really interesting thing that’s come out of the past two years of turmoil is just how much the average person in the UK’s financial welfare depends on stocks and shares. I’m not sure that people fully realise that their basic livelihood was tied up in their pension fund, which is invested in stocks and shares, their mortgage endowment policy, which is linked to the performance of the stock market and various other things. And the interesting thing is you know if the government gets its way you know stocks and shares are going to become even more important in people’s lives and listening to the debate amongst the professionals here, even they’re not clear where their futures going. So it’s difficult to understand how the average member of society can understand the implications and the risk and consequences of using the stock market to provide for their welfare. The government want us to use the stock market even more and more, but I think that is quite a risk at the moment, unless there are structures and institutions in place that allows that transfer of risk and responsibility to happen safely. I’m afraid those structures aren’t there yet because the average person does not have access to the right kind of advice at the right time to help them make decisions that will affect their future. Curwen: David Kauders, do you think there’s a problem that we’ve got a generation of private investors who have never really lost their shirts on the stock market from Sid who bought his British Gas shares through to people who got windfall shares from the Building Societies which became banks, those of us who bought into PEPs and ISAs in the ’90s. Kauders: You’re quite right. People only have one side of the story in their recent experience and that is that prices always went up and therefore they couldn’t lose, they could ignore the warnings and they could borrow money and gamble it in the stock market. That’s essentially what’s happened with say endowment mortgages, as an example, and the reality is that prices do go down as well as they go up and there is a reversion to the mean effect and downward prices are a fact of life, and people did not understand that and have over-exposed themselves to a situation they shouldn’t be in. Curwen: Christine Farnish, isn’t there also a generation of people who run our pension funds and other share investments who’ve never really seen the hard times, never seen prices keep falling year after year. Has that influenced the way they invested our money? Farnish: I’m not sure that that’s an accurate reflection of the way in which the professional fund management industry works. I think most professionals working there have been around for some time and will have broader experience perhaps than you suggest. But let me come back to the endowments point, because I think it’s important this one, the fact that consumers didn’t understand what they were buying and they didn’t understand that particular product, that some of it was invested in the stock markets and I think that may be true of quite a number of products that lots of people have got back home and they look at these documents and they say, oh I’ve got a with-profits policy here, they don’t realise just what that thing is, and I think there is a huge need for there to be more transparency and clarity about what it is people are buying. Curwen: So are you saying that you think some people don’t realise their pensions are invested in stocks and shares? Farnish: I think that’s true as well and I think ... Curwen: Isn’t that shocking? Farnish: It is, it is not a good state of affairs at all, and I think it’s beholden on everybody involved in this to try and spell out far more clearly exactly what it is that people have got, whether it’s an occupational pension scheme or a private pension. Curwen: Brian Tora, do people understand what they’re investing in? Tora: A lot of people don’t, that’s certainly true, and perhaps more important a lot of people don’t realise that the dynamics of the market have changed a great deal. I remember the bear market of 73-4. Now that was worse than this bear market, it didn’t go on for quite so long but it was certainly of a scale that was considerably greater than we’ve experienced recently, and I hope we don’t suffer the extent of the loss of value that took place then. Back in 73-4 you didn’t have a lot of direct private investors. There were maybe a few hundred thousand of them. Today you have many millions of them, so that’s something that’s different. Back in the early ’70s you didn’t have the understanding of the demographic changes that are taking place at present. Now we know, and I have to say that insurance companies and pension funds have been slightly slow in factoring this in to their calculations, now we know people are living longer, and that means you’ve got to provide money for a longer period. McAteer: Again I think it all comes back to this question of risk doesn’t it? Brian’s mentioned the ageing population and the government explicitly, this isn’t even a subtle policy, it’s a very explicit policy on the part of the government to transfer the risk of providing for the future away from the state on to the shoulders of the individuals. But at the same time that is coinciding with the big employer schemes who also don’t want to take on the risk of providing pensions for the future and they’re closing down their final salary schemes to new entrants. They’re opening up new stakeholder pensions for their employees and when you do open one of these stakeholder pensions, all the risk lies with you, you bear the risk and responsibility of making sure there’s enough money in your pot and you also bear the risk of making up a shortfall if things go wrong in the future. So there’s a huge transfer of risk and responsibility on to the shoulders of the individual, and you really have to question whether or not the individual consumer really is ready for that transfer of risk and they certainly do not have access to the necessary advice that will help them manage their finances for the long-term. Curwen: Christine Farnish is that fair? Farnish: I think it is largely fair, yes and I think there is a trend going on in the marketplace whereby risk is being transferred on to individual consumers’ shoulders and maybe too much risk is going that way, which individuals find very very difficult to manage. Why should individuals be expert at being able to sort out these very complex matters themselves. One of the great benefits of occupational pension schemes up until now, has been that the employer has shouldered quite a large part of that responsibility themselves and sort of created a benign environment, if you like, for people to save for retirement, and I would like to find new ways of making it possible for employers to continue to play a very big part in this area without unreasonable burdens being on their shoulders in terms of the cost and the risk that they’re shouldering. Curwen: But David Kauders, how do we quantify risk in a sensible way that people can understand? Kauders: There are no easy measures and I think there’s great danger of pumping out too much consumer information that produces lots of statistics that just baffle people. The reality is to assume risk successfully as an investor, you’ve got to approach it in the same way as a business does and that is you plan to stay around, therefore you don’t take silly risks, you look at everything carefully and you make sure you only do what you understand, and you basically have to make an assessment of the future and make your view of the future, the one you stay with. Curwen: Christine Farnish, given we’ve all been told by the government that we do need to save more and that we can’t rely on the state so much, how do we get better informed about financial products? As a former regulator at the Financial Services Authority who have a duty to look at this, how do you make that happen? Farnish: Well, the Financial Services Authority, the regulator, as you say, has got a responsibility now to try and promote public awareness, but I think there is always going to be a limit to what can be achieved indirectly by the regulator. It doesn’t matter how much money is put into that task. The regulator doesn’t have a normal communication directly with consumers when they’re buying products. So I think the industry here has got an enormous role to play in terms of making products more understandable and trying to be perhaps a bit clearer about what a product does and what it doesn’t do. But there’s also a job here for government because it is absolutely true that a lot of the regulations that have built up over the years, particularly on a tax side, lead to a lot of complexity in the market place which we could all probably do without. So I think a concerted effort to simplify along the lines recommended by Ron Sandler in his recent report would really be a big step in the right direction. Curwen: Mick McAteer, is enough being done by the government, by our guardians to educate us about investments. McAteer: I certainly don’t think it is. Our view on the regulator is, I think its education strategies and so on are rather passive, they tend to restrict themselves to producing leaflets and websites and whatever. If you are going to have a successful financial education strategy in the UK it has to be that you are a lot more proactive. And the best way to educate people is to give them access to your advice through a person face-to-face. The research that we’ve done in the past tells us that people don’t really pay attention to the information provided on fact sheets and whatever. The most important thing is the verbal communication between a trained, informed intermediary who can help guide them through the whole financial maze really. That’s really the only way you can deliver financial education in the UK. Curwen: Brian Tora, how important is this? Tora: I think it’s very important. There is a modest initiative in fact in the industry called the Personal Finance Education Group, which is a charity, which seeks really to take the business of financial education into schools. That’s the main way of doing it. Curwen: That’s for the next generation, that’s not for people who are out there buying products now. Tora: That’s very true it is for the next generation. We have to start there and maybe try to back fill with people who are investors already. You mustn’t underestimate either the sort of, the greed element that exists amongst the public. Earlier in this programme I heard somebody point out that they had made a 50% gain in a very short period of time by buying a technology fund and it’s worth mentioning that in February 2000 which is just before the peak of the technology market, more than half the unit trusts that were bought in this country were technology funds. Now I find that a staggering statistic and it goes to show how lemming like the public poured money into something because they thought it was the road to riches. McAteer: That’s a bit rich isn’t it? I mean for goodness sake, the vast majority of financial products are sold via these very intermediaries you know. I mean don’t forget, I mean the root cause for the mortgage endowment crisis was because people were more or less promised that the endowments would repay the mortgage using the stock market. Not only would they repay the mortgage, they’d give them a fantastic lump sum. The reason the technology funds were so popular is because these advisers who didn’t understand how past performance worked were recommending these technology funds. So you know you have to accept that a lot of people’s current disillusionment is actually based on their expectations that have been garnered by the myths and the lies that were put around by the intermediaries at the time. Tora: I wouldn’t exclude the product providers there. I do agree with you, there was a lot of opportunism at around that time and as a consequence people promoted technology funds because they knew it was an easy sale. But for it to be an easy sale you’ve got to have a willing buyer at the end. McAteer: These things are just much too important you know to treat them like commodities. We’re not talking here about sort of High Street goods or buying a pair of shoes or what have you. The risks and consequences of making the wrong decision, especially when you’re providing for your pension is just much too important to be left to the market. And I think that’s why it will take a real concerted government effort, it’ll take an effort by industry and indeed consumers. I think everyone will have to really sort of thrash it out you know a concerted policy, to make sure we can all provide for the future. But as I say, this is not like High Street goods, you know, if we get this public policy wrong, I mean current generations as well as us, we’ll be paying for the mistakes in the future. Curwen: David Kauders can I ask you, what would it take for you to advise somebody to buy shares? Kauders: I’d be looking for share prices to fall to at least half, if not three-quarters of where they are today, because I don’t think I see anything which tells me the bear market is over yet. I’ve looked to see the stock market totally and utterly hated, almost reviled. I’ve looked, as I say, early in the programme to see dividend yields in double figures and price range ratios in low single figures and we’re nowhere near those conditions yet. Curwen: Is that going to happen? Tora: I don’t think it will go quite that far but I do accept that we may not have seen the worst of the market so far and there are things that have changed which I think investors should be aware of. Just to use a little bit of industry jargon which I’ll explain. The incidence of stock specific risk has increased massively. By that I mean that the risk of a single share going bust is much greater than used to be the case. You only have to look at Marconi to know that a well known household name, a company valued at billions, can suddenly virtually vanish. Enron, for example, was once the sixth largest company in the world. So anybody investing must accept that there is a lot of risk holding an individual share, and there’s a lot of risk attached to events as well, as we saw with September the 11th. Curwen: Christine Farnish, if indeed the stock market has a lot farther to fall, that’s going to be extremely bad news for your members for the pension funds? Farnish: If indeed it has. No-one knows the answer to that question, but our pension fund members are in it for the long haul and what goes down usually goes up again just as what goes up may come down. So I suspect our members will be looking rather further ahead than perhaps some other people are. Curwen: I’m afraid we’ve got to leave it there. One thing everybody agrees about here is the need for the savings industry to be more open and honest about risks and that many of us need to be better informed about investing. Curwen: Thanks to David Kauders, Brian Tora, Christine Farnish and Mick McAteer. That’s it from this series. If you’ve missed any of the programmes you can listen to them again or read transcripts on our website. The address is www.bbc.co.uk/radio4 and you can then find Inside Money in the programme index. And just before we go, many of you have asked us about the fate of Dave and Joan McNevin, the couple who were on the brink of selling their home to clear their debt to First National Bank. The good news is the debts down to less than £200 and at the eleventh hour they managed to stop the house sale going through. Until next year, goodbye from Inside Money. 18