Single issues could be voter key

By Paul Siegert
BBC South East Political Correspondent

Hastings could be one of the South East's key battlegrounds

Only 13 councils are holding elections in Kent, Surrey and Sussex this year but it is very much a case of quality rather than quantity.

Labour did disastrously in the last elections 12 months ago and start these without controlling one council in the region, and they will obviously be hoping to change that.

Their best chance of taking control of a council would appear to be in Hastings. Although the Conservatives are currently the biggest party that could easily change with half the seats up for grabs this time around.

Between 1998 and 2004 this was a Labour stronghold, before it became hung and then eventually the Conservatives won it.

But a couple of by-election wins for Labour in the past 12 months has closed the gap and gives Labour hope that they can regain control.

Key issue

One key issue that could affect the outcome is where the local specialist maternity unit will be based.

Both Hastings and Eastbourne want it but health bosses appear to have chosen Hastings, with the Primary Care Trust claiming Hastings is more disadvantaged, has more teenage mothers and higher levels of smoking in pregnancy.

One interesting footnote is the decision of Margaret Williams, the previously non-political head of the Hastings hospital campaign to join the Liberal Democrats and stand against the Conservative Council Leader.

Elsewhere Labour have their work cut out. In Tandridge and Tunbridge Wells they do not have a single councillor.

The Conservatives will start the 1 May elections in control of four of the six councils (Crawley, Swale, Tandridge and Tunbridge Wells).

You don't have to be Mystic Meg to predict that they will hold all of those.

New leader

It is the first elections that the Liberal Democrats will fight under new leader Nick Clegg.

They have never really done very well in the South East compared to other parts of the country.

Realistically, apart from Maidstone, where they are just six seats behind the Conservatives, and Woking, they have little chance of taking outright control anywhere in the South East this time around.

Indeed no party has had overall control in Maidstone for a staggering 26 years.

Elsewhere the best the Lib Dems can hope for is to increase the number of councillors they have across the board and lay the foundations for future years.

In Surrey and West Sussex, six of the seven councils holding elections are currently controlled by the Conservatives.

Small swing

The Tories will be looking to take overall control of Elmbridge where they are the single biggest party.

They will also be hoping to increase the number of councillors they have in Woking which would only need a small swing to see it transfer to Lib Dem control.

Labour have just one seat in Reigate and Banstead and will want to increase their representation there.

They will also be looking to make inroads into Elmbridge, Mole Valley, Runnymede, Tandridge, Working and Worthing where they have no councillors at all.

The Liberal Democrats will be focusing their efforts on Woking where they need to win just three seats to take control.

The party will also be looking to increase the number of councillors they have in places like Worthing, Tandridge and Mole Valley where they are the second largest party.