South Wales East is another region where it would probably be easier to weigh Labour votes than to count them. All eight of the constituencies that make up the region sent Labour MPs to Westminster after the last general election. However, in the first assembly election in 1999 both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives spoiled Labour’s clean sweep. Plaid had a dramatic victory in Islwyn and the Tories secured their only first-past-the-post victory in Monmouth. This is probably the most anglicised, least Welsh-speaking region in Wales. It includes six seats from the county of Gwent, as well as the Valley areas of Caerphilly and Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney. It draws in the largely rural, picturesque and well-off Monmouth, several economically-troubled valley areas, and the new city of Newport. Much of this area has been affected by the decline of steelmaking at Llanwern in Newport and at Ebbw Vale.
The Conservatives will be hopeful of holding on to Monmouth, and Neil Kinnock’s old seat of Islwyn is a key Labour target seat, as the party strives to win an overall majority. Labour stands virtually no chance of a list seat here because of its strength at constituency level. The Liberal Democrat leader in the assembly, Deputy First Minister Mike German, was a list AM here in 1999 and is likely to be re-elected.
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