This region saw a clean sweep for Labour at the first assembly election and most recently at Westminster. In 1999 Labour’s seven constituency victories in South Wales West left the other three main parties battling for the four list seats. Plaid Cymru came out top, taking two, while the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats shared one each. But things could be different this time, with the concerted efforts of the Greens to target the regional list system. The only previous occasion the Greens have won an election at a national level before was when Cynog Dafis was elected MP for Ceredigion in 1992 on a joint Plaid/Green ticket. Three familiar faces from the assembly’s first term – Conservative Alun Cairns, Liberal Democrat Peter Black and Plaid Cymru’s Janet Davies – should all retain their seats as they top their respective parties’ lists.
The region straddles the border between the more Welsh-speaking west and more anglicised east of the nation. It includes the traditional Valleys area of Ogmore, the relative prosperity of Gower, and Swansea. At 42.4% the 1999 turnout in this region was the lowest in Wales and although all seven constituencies were won by Labour, its share of the vote when compared to the 1997 general election fell by nearly a quarter. The main surprise was the success of Plaid Cymru, who polled more than twice as many votes as the Conservatives.
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