This is the most rural of the five Welsh electoral regions, covering a vast swathe of the nation, and the one where support is most evenly divided between the political parties. Three parties shared the eight individual constituencies in 1999 and the majority of these look safe for the incumbents. Brecon and Radnorshire has been a perpetual marginal since a parliamentary by-election in 1985 and presents the Conservatives with their only realistic target in the region. Labour cannot be entirely discounted here either. The top two Conservative list candidates, one of whom is the party's assembly leader, Nick Bourne, are almost certain to get into the assembly via this route. This does, however, reflect the party's likely failure to win an individual constituency here.
Labour and Plaid Cymru gained a seat each on this regional list in 1999. Labour’s choice of candidate was controversial, as it ensured a place in the assembly for Alun Michael, who was destined to become the shortlived first secretary. After he resigned from that job he stepped down from the assembly altogether. Because of the way this electoral system works, there was no by-election, and his place was taken by Delyth Evans, the next name on Labour’s list. This time Labour has selected Cherry Short at the top of its list. Well known as a commissioner with the Commission for Racial Equality, she failed to get into the assembly in 1999 when she was beaten in the Monmouth constituency. If elected this time, she would be Wales' first black or ethnic minority AM. In 1999, the Liberal Democrats failed to gain any list seats here and look unlikely to do so again this time unless they lose one of their constituencies.