North Wales is a socially and politically mixed constituency containing traditional Labour industrial areas, prosperous resorts and retirement suburbs, as well as rural Welsh-speaking communities. Labour won six of the nine constituencies here in 1999, which meant it had no hope of taking seats on the list. The other three first-past-the-post seats went to Plaid Cymru, who took one on the list. Of all the Welsh regions, North Wales offers most hope to the Conservatives. Top of their list – and almost certain to become an AM – is Brynle Williams, who led the mass fuel protests in autumn 2000. In 1999 the Tories failed to win any first-past-the-post seats here, but they did secure two seats via this list. They hope to secure some constituencies to provide evidence of Tory rebuilding in Wales, and in this region Clwyd West offers them most cause for optimism.
Plaid Cymru does not tend to poll strongly outside its heartlands at Westminster elections, but did far better in the first assembly poll. It can expect to win at least one list seat here this time, as it did in 1999. However, if Plaid was to lose one or more of its constituencies – with Conwy probably the most vulnerable – it could gain another AM via the list. The Liberal Democrats won no constituency seats here in 1999, but gained one AM through the list. That was Christine Humphreys, who subsequently resigned from the assembly. Her place was taken by Eleanor Burnham, who tops the Lib Dem list this time.
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