by James Landale
BBC News, chief political correspondent
For Gordon Brown, Labour's party conference is both a danger and an opportunity.
There is danger obviously from the potential threat of more challenges to his leadership.
In the halls and corridors of this fortified conference village in Manchester, thousands of Labour MPs, ministers and party members will gather for the first time since the leadership rebels broke cover and called for the prime minister's head.
The potential for public dissent is huge. There is also a danger that on Tuesday Mr Brown will never quite meet the overinflated expectations of his conference speech.
But there is opportunity too. His aides hope he can use the global financial crisis to emphasise what they see as his strengths; his economic experience and international status.
Current slump
The conference could also be an opportunity for Mr Brown to draw breath if his opponents hold their fire, unwilling to challenge him at a time of national crisis.
It is an opportunity too for the prime minister to make a speech or unveil a policy that changes the political weather.
"This morning's latest YouGov opinion poll in the Daily Telegraph still has Labour 20 points behind the Conservatives"
And it is an opportunity to defuse much of the internal Labour anger at him by publicly acknowledging his leadership has at the very least played a part in Labour's current slump in the opinion polls.
So, by these measures, on day one, how is Labour faring?
Well, the message about economic competence is beginning to gain some traction.
The recently Brown-opposing, Tory-sympathising Guardian newspaper not only opens its pages for Mr Brown to eulogise about his "decisive action" over the financial crisis, but it also declares that shares in Brown have "rallied strongly".
Mr Brown hopes that his intervention over the HBOS/Lloyds TSB merger, the temporary ban on short selling, and his calls for greater financial transparency will convince voters he is a man whose time has come.
His people hope that decisiveness will replace dithering as the public's image of Mr Brown.
At the very least, the financial crisis gives Mr Brown what political wonks call "a narrative", in other words a story about himself and his place in the world.
It also allows him to try to create dividing lines with the Conservatives, by emphasising state intervention to protect voters from the chaos of the market in contrast to the Conservatives' distrust of big state action.
Mr Brown talks of "a new agenda for an active government".
Mea culpa
Cabinet ministers have been out in force in the newspapers, declaring their loyalty but interestingly also admitting Mr Brown has made mistakes: the Justice Secretary Jack Straw points the Daily Telegraph to the 10p tax rate abolition; the Health Secretary Alan Johnson in the Times adds "the election that never was".
"I have never been a great Brown cheerleader...I think he is the best person at the moment"
The question, of course, is how far Mr Brown himself will go in this mea culpa strategy.
The Foreign Secretary David Miliband almost protests his loyalty too loudly, telling the Daily Mirror that Labour should pull together, come together and unite behind the prime minister.
And of course the £1m from JK Rowling is a welcome fillip.
The importance comes not just in the extra money for a cash-strapped party but more importantly in the symbolism of just having someone - anyone - stand up and shout Mr Brown's praises from the rooftops. They have been rather thin on the ground recently.
But the dangers below the waterline remain. This morning's latest YouGov opinion poll in the Daily Telegraph still has Labour 20 points behind the Conservatives.
Mr Straw says he understands the anxieties of Mr Brown's opponents and notes their commitment to the party is no less than others'.
The Schools Secretary Ed Balls is more inflammatory, accusing critics of "Mrs Merton" politics by calling for "a heated debate".
Mr Johnson, while pledging his loyalty and ruling himself out of any leadership contest, is astonishingly rude about the prime minister, mocking his smile - "he paid a lot of money for that" - and registering lukewarm support: "I have never been a great Brown cheerleader...I think he is the best person at the moment."
Note those last three words. Mr Johnson is also loquaciously laudatory of Mr Miliband, who, he says, "has got a great future in the party".
So there is a smile on Gordon Brown's face this morning - and JK Rowling paid a lot of money for that.
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