Henley poll deals anniversary blow

Analysis
By David Thompson
Political correspondent, BBC News, Henley-on-Thames

Not the anniversary present Gordon Brown was hoping for - a lost deposit, a decimated vote, and fifth place behind the Greens and the British National Party.

The Henley by-election will be the cause of a lot of furrowed brows this morning, both at Labour Party headquarters and in 10 Downing Street.

Labour would never have expected to win, or come second in this safe Tory seat. They managed third at the last general election, but at least that was behind the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.

Trailing behind two minority parties and to fail to manage even the 1,700 or so votes which would have saved candidate Richard McKenzie's deposit will hurt. A lot.

Gordon Brown insisted there would be no special events to mark his first year in charge. Henley makes that look like a very wise decision indeed.

Bruising campaign

For the Liberal Democrats, Henley provided good and not so good news. On the one hand, candidate Stephen Kearney maintained the party share of the vote which, given what happened to Labour, might seem like no mean feat.

"Henley had the potential to be tricky for the Tories; instead, it has provided another raft of gruesome headlines for Gordon Brown"

On the other, the party spent a lot of time and effort in the seat - some strategists viewed this as being more important than Crewe and Nantwich - and yet they failed to make a dent in the Tory majority.

The Lib Dems fought a typically bruising campaign where they were accused of playing the man and not the ball. Senior figures within the party's Cowley Street headquarters may be wondering if they got their tactics right.

The big worry for the Conservatives was whether, after a high profile, larger-than-life character like Boris Johnson, the more low-key John Howell would prove attractive enough to persuade the voters of Henley to turn out for him.

They needn't have worried. Mr Howell's victory was as comprehensive as any Tory could have hoped for. The local boy done good - so much so, that those opposed to David Cameron's A list may use his performance as evidence that white, middle-aged, middle-class men still have what it takes to steer the party on its path of power.

Henley had the potential to be tricky for the Tories; instead, it has provided another raft of gruesome headlines for Gordon Brown.

One year in, things are very definitely not getting better for the prime minister.

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