Brown's business as usual

With Blairite dissidents warning him to get his act together, Gordon Brown is determined to put his recent setbacks behind him and show he is getting on with the business of running the country.

Unfortunately for him, the business this week revolves around the Lisbon summit at which the hugely-controversial EU reform treaty will be finalised.

Mr Brown is hoping to turn the meeting into a positive, with a show of strength over his so-called "red lines" and his threat to veto the entire package if he doesn't get his way.

There seems little likelihood he will have to follow through on that threat, however, as European Commission President, Jose Manuel Barroso, has already stated he believes the UK will get its deal.

But Mr Brown's critics, led by David Cameron, say he is betraying voters by refusing to hold a referendum on the treaty which, they claim, is virtually identical to the rejected constitution on which Labour promised a vote.

Former minister, Gisela Stewart, has even suggested the way to restore trust in the government, undermined by Mr Brown's snap poll stunt, would be to hold that promised referendum.

Symbolic fight

This would be difficult enough for the prime minister, but he is also facing claims from MPs on the Commons European scrutiny committee that his red lines will be eroded within five years anyway.

There are claims the opt outs on social, foreign and home affairs and the charter of fundamental rights, will be challenged and, eventually, over-ruled.

Meanwhile, in a separate attack, Mr Barroso has said one of those red lines - the UK's opt-out on policing and judicial co-operation - would hinder the fight against terrorism.

It may be that Mr Brown would relish a symbolic fight against any attempt at the summit to challenge the red lines - so long as it showed him standing up for British interests and ended in victory.

What he does not want is any sign from the meeting that his critics are right and that the opt-outs have either been watered down or are unsustainable in the long term.

Speak out

That sort of outcome would massively increase the pressure on him to hold a referendum, assuming he had not vetoed the treaty, as promised.

But it would also further infuriate those Blairites like Lord Falconer and John Hutton who are currently calling for him to spell out his long term vision for the country or give the impression of "drift".

It was, after all, Tony Blair who negotiated the opt-outs as one of his final acts as prime minister.

It is too early at the moment to suggest Mr Brown is facing the same sort of rebellion that Tory leader John Major suffered at the hand of Thatcherites during his time as prime minister.

And Mr Blair seems to have moved quickly to reject the criticisms of his successor.

But reassurances from the prime minister that he has already set out his vision have, so far, failed to satisfy his internal critics and there are rumours that others - such as former ministers Steven Byers, Charles Clarke and Alan Milburn - may be planning to speak out.

Mr Brown would quickly dismiss them as voices from the past who had never supported his leadership, but it would still add to the impression of a party divided.

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