Dynastic drama may have more twists

The events of this week were compelling political theatre, but the play was written some weeks ago.

Yet - apologies here to Calvinists for I don't mean this in the theological sense - nothing is predestined in politics.

So, the unfolding drama of Ian Paisley Jnr's resignation and the subsequent pressure on his father may have seemed to fit a script authored at an earlier date, but from here on the plot may follow awkward and unforeseen twists and turns.

Ian Paisley Jnr resigned because he feared the sins of the son might be visited upon the father.

His resignation was presented as an attempt to protect the party and his father. In effect, though, it leaves his father exposed.

It's clear that Ian Paisley Snr relied heavily upon his son in order to fulfil his role as first minister and that any other junior minister could find it impossible to offer the same level of support.

Early exit?

So predictions of the father leaving office after only a year, and not the four he promised, are now entirely credible.

The key concern facing many now, within the DUP and beyond, is whether Ian Paisley Snr will remain until his year is up or he will instead decide to go earlier at a time of his own choosing.

For despite all the press inquiries, and any number of parliamentary investigations, this is now a personal decision that only Ian Paisley Snr can make. He may want to stay until May or later, and then again he may not.

An early departure could prove tricky for party managers and has the potential to give the power-sharing Executive its first real test of its stability.

It is perhaps for that reason that none of the parties - even the opposition from within in terms of the SDLP and UUP - are gunning for Paisley Snr at present.

On The Politics Show this week our home affairs correspondent, Vincent Kearney, has been examining the vexed issue of policing and justice.

Devolution debacle

The Northern Ireland Office has just published a survey which shows a whopping 61% of DUP voters support devolution of policing and justice powers. 14% of them apparently believe May isn't soon enough.

This means that either the survey or the DUP is hopelessly out of touch - you decide.

Robin has more on that here...

With a junior ministerial appointment to replace Ian Jnr in the offing, we return to the Paisley factor in studio as we examine how this week's events are likely to impact on the ongoing operation of devolution.

Jim

PS - Lindy McDowell commented this week in the Belfast Telegraph that Ian Jnr's resignation was the first time someone had resigned to spend less time with their family.

It reminds me of a particularly cutting observation on the separation of former Culture Minister Tessa Jowell and her lawyer husband David Mills who had become embroiled in an Italian corruption scandal.

At the time it was said she was leaving her family to spend more time with her career...

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