Republicans' secret negotiations

The IRA is still waiting to hear from Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness, and they are still waiting to hear from Tony Blair.

They want to know the fine detail of his offer across a broad range of issues and, soon, the British prime minister will want to know what he can expect from the IRA.

Sinn Fein gave the British Government a document before Christmas - to quote one source, a "detailed examination of the gaps in the implementation of the Good Friday Agreement".

" According to McGuinness, it is the most important negotiation in the history of the peace process "

The status of the document back then was a "work in progress", but already it had 16 headings in terms of issues to be addressed and, under human rights and equality, there were 12 or 13 sub heads.

Republicans want to know what Blair intends as his "acts of completion" in the Northern Ireland peace process.

Downing Street

The thickness of the Sinn Fein document has been likened to a telephone book. It is not that, but it certainly is detailed.

None of what is going on - as far as the real business is concerned - is happening out in the open. This is private work being dealt with well away from the prying eyes of the media.

According to McGuinness, it is the most important negotiation in the history of the peace process.

And, if it is, that would suggest that big business will have to be done between Downing Street and the Provisional IRA.

There is still no guarantee, no certainty, that it will work.

One of the headings in the Sinn Fein document is "UUP intentions" and what republicans will want to know is: Who on the unionist side can deliver?

The Sinn Fein document maps out, from a republican perspective, what they believe the British need to do across a range of issues - policing, demilitarisation and 'on-the-run' suspects, to name but three.

'Something to discuss'

And on demilitarisation there now appears to be some detail.

What was billed as a "routine" meeting between Tony Blair and Northern Ireland's Chief Constable Hugh Orde on 6 January now appears to have been anything but routine.

The outgoing Army GoC, Alastair Irwin, was also present and it is understood proposals on demilitarisation or normalisation, as some prefer to call it, have been drawn up.

There is a plan to dismantle and remove controversial army watchtowers in border areas, particularly in south Armagh, but this proposal will be set in a context and will depend on what the IRA is prepared to do.

Adams and McGuinness have made clear, publicly and privately, that they are not prepared to go to the IRA until they see what is on the table from Blair - not on any one issue but across that broad range of matters set out in the Sinn Fein document.

"Today, that is still not clear," one republican source told me, and he went on to add:

"Speculation about what the IRA may or may not do is entirely wrong.

" Republicans know the nature of this process, know the mess it is in and know that bigger IRA steps will be required if the political institutions are to be re-built "
Brian Rowan

"No-one from Sinn Fein is going to the army (the IRA) to discuss any of this until they have something to discuss with them."

The source told me there was no "structured, organised, debate taking place about how the IRA should respond to this" - the negotiations that are continuing in the background.

But he knows that won't stop the speculation and the suggestions of IRA disbandment, a standing down of the organisation or a statement that "the war is over".

But, in recent contacts with senior republicans, I have been left with the very firm impression that the IRA views all of these things as falling within the area of "unrealisable and unrealistic ultimatums".

The off-the-record position is much more firm and dismissive.

'No longer good enough'

That said, republicans know the nature of this process, know the mess it is in and know that bigger IRA steps will be required if the political institutions are to be re-built - institutions such as the power-sharing Executive, which fell within days of the IRA being linked to intelligence gathering inside the Northern Ireland Office.

So, is the IRA likely to do something more in the context of a comprehensive deal from the British?

The answer to that is yes.

On the republican side there is a view that Tony Blair is trying to get a deal that is "so big - so huge" that the unionists "can't walk away" - a kind of Good Friday Agreement Mark II.

" There is also speculation that Sinn Fein could move to endorse the new policing arrangements, but that will depend on Blair's response to the party's pre-Christmas document "

And, Martin McGuinness has said publicly that the tedious "inch-by-inch" approach to progress in the past is no longer good enough.

That in itself suggests bigger republican steps than ever before - but only if the British move at the same pace.

General John de Chastelain who heads the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning returns to Northern Ireland this weekend after a break at home in Canada, and one of the steps the IRA will be required to take will be to get back into talks with the arms body.

It will also have to build on its two previous acts of putting "arms beyond use" and add to its "complete cessation of military operations" - taking in activities such as intelligence gathering.

There is also speculation that Sinn Fein could move to endorse the new policing arrangements, but that will depend on Blair's response to the party's pre-Christmas document.

All this is big in republican terms - and will be too much for many who hold the view that the IRA has already done more than enough.

"There isn't a great well of willingness or openness or desire to go any further than they have gone," one source told me.

But on the government side, the IRA steps I have outlined are described as being at the "low end of expectations".

"It's not going to be good enough for the unionists," one source told me.

So, the two big players in this negotiation continue to spar with each other and the real fight, in terms of these talks, has not yet begun.

Neither side can afford to knock the other out.

If there is to be progress, big moves - arguably the biggest moves yet - will be be required of both sides.