UK undergraduates 'may go abroad'

Countries such as China and India would provide tuition at a lower cost, he told the Universities UK conference.

Mr Johnson said the shortage of undergraduates would be exacerbated by an expected fall in the number of 18-year-olds in the decade after 2010.

"In the long term, the best response is to remain competitive by raising quality", he told university leaders.

'Maintaining our position'

Speaking at the conference in Exeter, Devon, Mr Johnson said: "Higher education is a large and lucrative market with 100 million students worldwide.

"Our higher education sector already serves students from 100 nations but maintaining our position will not be easy when other countries increasingly offer similar courses for lower cost."

The number of students from countries within the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development who take courses abroad has doubled in the past decade to 2.7 million.

The UK is responsible for a 16.1% share of the market, behind only the US on 25.1%.

Some Chinese universities have started offering degrees taught in English, in an effort to break in to this lucrative market.

Mr Johnson said: "If this challenge isn't grasped, not only will our share of overseas students dwindle, so will our share of domestic students who will go abroad.

"Add to this demographic pressures - between 2010 and 2020 we expect the number of 18-year-olds to decrease from 680,000 to 580,000 - and the dangers become even more apparent."

Overseas students are estimated to bring several billion pounds a year into the UK economy.

Mr Johnson also said it was important to increase access to universities for young people from poorer backgrounds.

He added: "Our country can't stand petrified in the face of global change, nor can we retain today's stubborn class rigidity.

"For our country to change, so must our universities."

Mr Johnson also said: "If we fail in this quest, we squander human capital and waste individual potential and sell society short."

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