Question: Could Blair be toppled by war?

QUESTION
Simon Porch, UK


" Is there evidence so far that Tony Blair's determination to support the US could put his position as prime minister under threat? "

ANSWER
From Laura Trevelyan, BBC political correspondent


" Mr Blair is considerably more bellicose than the party he leads, and while he has been careful to stress the need for a second UN resolution before hostilities with Iraq, thus keeping his party united for the moment, should war be declared without a second resolution his position would become considerably less secure.

Mr Blair has emphasised that should there be a "capricious" use of the veto by a permanent member of the UN security council (ie Russia or France) then Britain and America reserve the right to attack Iraq. This is the point at which the Labour Party would begin to crack - activists, many MPs and some cabinet members (perhaps Clare Short and/or Robin Cook) will be deeply unhappy about abandoning the UN route in favour of the US position and Mr Blair will face harsh criticism from within. How harsh is the million dollar question.

It all depends on the length of the war, the number of casualties and so on. While it's possible to find Labour figures predicting the PM could lose the leadership of the party over this, they tend to be people who dislike him anyway.

But it is clear Mr Blair is moving further away from the heartbeat of his party than he has ever dared before. Privately, many Labour MPs are scathing about the abilities of President Bush and what they see as the motivations for war. Others say the PM is acting as a brake on Mr Bush's worst excesses, but either way it's difficult to find much support for the American president.

Labour MPs from around the country report that their constituency parties are debating the government's position on Iraq, with far more members opposing Mr Blair than backing him. The message coming back to Downing Street is consistent - they are yet to be convinced of the case for war.

It will be interesting to assess the mood of the party when it gathers in Glasgow this weekend for the spring conference. En masse meetings are always an opportunity to see where the party stands, and this particular gathering will give a good sense of whether the "uber-faithful" activists have been convinced by the PM's impassioned case for disarming Saddam Hussein by force. "