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Nigeria's elections to local councils on Saturday were the first stage of a transition process due to culminate next May with the instalment of a democratically-elected civilian president.
Although there are many potential pitfalls on the way, there is now a refreshing air of optimism in this giant African country.
The Reverend Jesse Jackson, visiting Nigeria last month as a special envoy of President Bill Clinton, said: "After the long midnight, we see signs of daylight emerging".
The Reverend Jackson was referring to the dark days of the former regime of General Sani Abacha, who died of a heart attack in June of this year.
Suspended from the Commonwealth and isolated by sanctions because of human rights abuses, General Abacha's regime was infamous for its corruption and oppressive methods.
The transformation since General Abacha's death has been remarkable.
Liberty dawns
His successor, General Abdulsalami Abubakar, has released dozens of political prisoners and encouraged exiles to return home.
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A UN special envoy on human rights, Soli Sorabjee, concluded a nine day tour of the country this week by observing that there is now "a willingness on the Nigerian government's behalf to open up and accept criticism".
Mr Sorabjee, who was prevented from visiting Nigeria under the Abacha regime, said that he had been given "unrestricted access to every person he wanted to meet, and to every place he wanted to visit".
General Abubakar has also introduced a credible transition programme, overseen by an independent national electoral commission, which will oversee a series of elections between now and late February.
Nobody is expecting that the electoral process will be flawless. October's voter registration was poorly organised, and many Nigerians complained that they were unable to register.
But, so far, most observers agree that the military itself has not been interfering with the process.
Of course, if by February a presidential front-runner has emerged with whom the military are distinctly uncomfortable, that could change.
"Whoever the next president is, he will have to be very careful with the military, and very sensitive to their needs", said one African diplomat in the commercial capital, Lagos.
Acting cautiously
General Abubakar himself appears aware that to push through reforms too quickly may be dangerous.
![[ image: width=150]](/olmedia/225000/images/_227316_abacha_150.jpg)
The UN Special Envoy, Mr Sorabjee, complained that many of the repressive decrees which the military has used to rule Nigeria are still in place, despite repeated promises that they are about to be repealed.
General Abubakar has also delayed taking some tough economic decisions. International financial institutions have repeatedly called for the scrapping of the dual exchange rate, seen as an easy mechanism for massive corruption open to those in positions of influence.
Oil provides Nigeria with an estimated 90 per cent of its export earnings; but falling global prices have hit hard. So too has unrest in the impoverished Niger delta, where the oil is produced.
After a series of flow stations were shut down in October after being taken over by youths of the ethnic Ijaw group, Nigeria's total oil output fell by about one third.
The signs of misrule are obvious. Its most spectacular, and ironic manifestation is the fuel crisis.
'A national embarrassment'
Nigeria's four oil refineries are in various states of disrepair. Despite being one of the world's largest oil producing nations, it has to rely on imports.
General Abubakar has described the situation as a "national embarrassment".
Critics of military rule, like Ayo Obe, president of the Civil Liberties Organisation, now accuse the soldiers of just wanting to get out of power fast, regardless of the consequences.
She says: "They seem to think they can just leave the mess behind them for the civilians to clean up".
It is true that Nigerians often seem doomed not to learn from the mistakes of the past.
But the dramatic, and unexpected change in the country's political fortunes this year has at least made hope for the future a realistic proposition.
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1998 Contents |
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- | Balloon race |
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- | Care in the community |
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- | Sri Lanka |
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- | Drugs in sport |
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- | Millennium Dome |
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- | WEF Davos |
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- | Health |
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- | Diana |
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- | 04/98 |
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- | Karla Faye Tucker |
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- | EU Enlargement |
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- | Five Nations |
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- | Asian economic crises |
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- | London Referendum |
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- | Water Week |
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- | Romanov |
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- | Pope in Cuba |
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- | South Korea |
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- | Chinese New Year |
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- | Harley Davidson |
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- | Woodward |
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- | Car Crash |
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- | Northern Ireland |
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- | Elgar |
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- | Super Bowl XXXII |
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- | Kosovo |
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- | Gulf War Syndrome |
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- | Hooligans |
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- | Bloody Sunday |
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- | Food Agency |
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- | Encryption |
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- | Bon Appetit |
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- | Eurasia 98 |
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- | US abortion rights |
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- | liberal democrats |
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- | Valentine |
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- | Welfare Reform |
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- | Australian Republic |
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- | PNG |
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- | 1970s |
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- | India Elections |
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- | Viagra |
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06/98 Contents |
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Nigeria |
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- |
Queens Birthday Honours |
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Hong Kong Handover Anniversary |
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Cardiff summit |
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Clinton in China |
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After Abacha |
Abubakar's eve of election address
(04 Dec 98 | Africa)
Parting thoughts from Nigeria
(26 Nov 98 | From Our Own Correspondent)
Nigeria tastes freedom
(21 Sep 98 | From Our Own Correspondent)
Amnesty International Report on Nigeria
Nigeria on the Net
NigeriaWeb
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Special report: Nigeria in transition
Abiola: Millionaire turned politician
Profile: How General Abubakar emerged from the shadows
Obituary: Abacha leader with an iron grip
Abiola's death captures world headlines
Nigeria's ethnic divisions
From Our Own Correspondent
Analysis: What next for Nigeria?
Abacha's uniting shadow