Aid workers and Afghan refugees say the key city of Kandahar in southern Afghanistan remains under Taleban control, but some reports indicate the Taleban's hold on the city is becoming increasingly fragile.

I went to the border crossing point of Chaman in western Pakistan, where Taleban soldiers and refugees from Kandahar can be seen making their way into Pakistan.

It was extremely tense there.

We saw Taleban fighters and frightened refugees making their way into Pakistan.

The Taleban were keen to persuade us that in Kandahar, the city that controls southern Afghanistan, their comrades are still entrenched and ready to fight.

But refugees told a different story. They said there are noticeably fewer Taleban fighters in the city than in previous weeks.

Morale low

And a group of aid workers who had left Kandahar only hours previously said morale among Taleban fighters was low, and several of their commanders had left the city to seek refuge in the surrounding mountains.

The picture is very confused, but reports at the border suggest that the Taleban's grip on the city is starting to erode.

And local tribal leaders, some loosely linked to the Northern Alliance, others loyal to the former Afghan king, Zahir Shah, are already manoeuvring to take over the city if and when the Taleban give it up.

One such group, led by the former governor of Kandahar, Gul Aghan Sharzai, has a convoy of 500 men and tribal elders poised at the border. He's reportedly sent emissaries to negotiate with the Taleban.

Rallying support

And another group led by Hamid Kharzai, a former deputy foreign minister, claims to be working inside Afghanistan to rally support for King Zahir Shah.

What happens in Kandahar is key to Afghanistan's future. It's the heartland of the Pashtuns, the country's largest ethnic group.

Whoever takes Kandahar from the Taleban, whether peacefully or by force, will wield great influence in the make-up of a post-Taleban government.