BBC News Online: Sci/Tech

Himalayan quake warning

The Himalayan mountains seen from space

Five major earthquakes have struck India in the last decade but according to geologists the worst may be yet to come.

The prediction is based on several lines of geological evidence that point to potential large earthquakes in the region.

Global Positioning System measurements show that India and Tibet are moving closer together by around 20 millimetres every year.

The movement creates pressure across the Himalayan region, and the only way to release this pressure is through earthquakes, says a team of scientists led by Roger Bilham at the University of Colorado in Boulder, US.

There have been six major Himalayan earthquakes in the past 200 years, they say, the most recent in 1950.

"The population of India has doubled since the last great Himalayan earthquake in 1950," the scientists say in the journal Science.

"The urban population in the Ganges plain has increased by a factor of 10 since the 1905 earthquake, when collapsing buildings killed 19,500 people.

"Today, about 50 million people are at risk from great Himalayan earthquakes, many of them in towns and villages in the Ganges plain."