Iraq at the crossroads

The level of violence in Iraq has fallen during 2008, raising hopes of a calmer 2009. The BBC's former Baghdad correspondent, Andrew North, looks at what lies in store for a still-troubled country.

A sharp wind kicks up the dust in the empty dead-end street beside Baghdad's main morgue. A solitary woman in a brown headscarf turns quickly into the building.

Two years ago, at the height of the sectarian fighting, this was a scene of almost biblical misery.

Crowds of desperate, tear-lined faces filled the street, hoping to find the remains of loved ones inside.

Every few minutes yet more bodies would arrive, in flimsy wooden coffins or wrapped in carpets, often mutilated beyond recognition by torture or torn apart by blasts.

There were often 100 corpses a day coming into the morgue, week after week - so many that officials were using one of the parking bays as overfill storage when we visited in the summer of 2006.

"We usually receive about 10 to 15 bodies a day now," says Ra'ouf Rasoul, deputy director of the morgue.

Car crashes now make up more of the morgue's caseload. Baghdad's is starting to become a typical big city morgue once more.

Unclaimed corpses

But if Baghdad's main morgue is an example of how much has changed, it also shows that the conflict in Iraq is not over yet.

Victims of shootings or bombings are still brought in every day. And in a small unmarked room, hidden behind dark curtains, is a reminder of the still-unhealed wounds.

The woman in the headscarf had come to look through the morgue's photo database of unclaimed corpses from the violence of the past few years - several thousand of them in this morgue alone.

Whether this is just a long lull in Iraq, or the beginnings of real recovery, we will know more clearly in the coming year - particularly with Iraqis due to go to the polls three times.

There will be provincial elections on 31 January, a July referendum on the security pact with the US, and a general election in December.

Virtuous circle?

The atmosphere has changed palpably in the past year.

Violence is down tenfold from the peaks of 2006-2007, according to Iraqi government records. Economic activity has picked up in turn.

The Americans hope a virtuous circle has set in, through the continuing ceasefires, local deals and side-switching which have underpinned the drop in violence - in other words that people who used to fight may now have more interest in co-operating with the authorities.

There are signs of this. The process of transferring to Iraqi control tens of thousands of former insurgents and tribesmen who have joined local US-backed militias, or Awakening Councils, has gone more smoothly than expected.

Without this support base, al-Qaeda in Iraq and those insurgent groups still fighting have been weakened considerably.

Much the same applies to the Shia Mehdi army militia of the anti-American cleric Moqtada Sadr.

Many believe its continuing ceasefire - crucial to the fall in violence - is as much a reflection of its own internal problems.

Hit by relentless US and Iraqi assaults and discredited in many areas because of its role in the sectarian bloodshed, it has been finding it harder to recruit new members.

Light brigade charge?

At the same time, the past year has seen Iraq's army and police grow in size, confidence and competence.

"While they may be down, groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq, or the Mahdi army militia are not out"

Iraq presents a lesson from history

Analysis: Kirkuk faultline

Spring saw Prime Minister Nouri Maliki ordering his "Charge of the Knights" operation against Mehdi army elements left behind in Basra after the British pullout.

In fact, it almost became a modern-day Charge of the Light Brigade until US reinforcements were rushed in.

But even if they do still have a lot to prove, most agree Iraq's security forces have made progress since.

It tells you a lot that they are now hit twice as often by roadside bombs as coalition forces.

But the fact there are still bombs and other kinds of violence every day says even more.

There may be less killing, but Baghdad remains one of the most dangerous cities in the world.

Not voting

At the end of a shoe, US President George W Bush got a taste of the deep anger that many Iraqis still feel towards the Americans for the chaos their invasion has unleashed.

To the north, a battle drags on for control of Iraq's third city, Mosul. Moreover, while they may be down, groups like al-Qaeda in Iraq, or the Mehdi army militia, are not out.

There is still no real consensus between Iraq's different groups which could lay the foundations for eventual peace.

For a second year running, despite the improved security, there has been no progress at all on key reconciliation issues such as a framework for distributing oil and gas revenues and power-sharing.

Another festering problem is the northern city of Kirkuk and its oil-rich hinterland - jointly claimed by Arabs, Turkomans and the Kurds.

Only by excluding Kirkuk from the voting was it possible to agree on holding the provincial elections at the end of January.

The three Kurdish provinces will also not be voting then.

There are mounting strains, too, between the Kurds and the Shia parties at the heart of Iraq's coalition government.

Refugee trickle

Whatever happens next, the international military coalition will have progressively less influence, as its withdrawal begins in earnest this coming year - all British combat troops out by the middle of 2009 and all Americans by the end of 2011.

If he sticks to his plans, US President-elect Barack Obama may speed things up.

The flip side of this for the Iraqis is that they will get progressively less help if the violence surges again.

All this uncertainty is reflected in the trickle of returning refugees.

They come back from time to time sniff the air and decide whether to come back permanently.

But many still get the feeling things could collapse again, so they hold off, keeping their place in Syria or Jordan.

At Baghdad's morgue, Rasoul Ra'ouf says: "We can only pray the worst is over."