Iran's action: A deliberate ploy?

Although officials on both sides have stressed that the detention of 15 British personnel by Iran is not linked to any wider issues, there is a widely-held suspicion that the capture was the product of a deliberate decision by Iran's Revolutionary Guards to flex their muscles, partly in response to growing friction with the United States.

Both Iran and the US accuse the other of engaging in clandestine and subversive activity and fears are growing that the tensions could spiral out of control into something much more dangerous.

In recent months, the eastern Iranian province of Sistan-Baluchestan has seen a series of attacks and car bombs targeting Iran's Revolutionary Guards.

Local TV recently aired a series of confessions from individuals claiming that they were members of a group called Jundallah, a Sunni militant group.

Iranian TV claimed the men had been trained by Arabs but it was the logo of America's CIA which flashed repeatedly on the screen - indicating who the Iranians really believe is stirring ethnic unrest in parts of the country.

Officials in Iran believe that, as well as supporting militants in the east of the country, the US has also been supporting Azeris in the north as well as Iranian Kurds.

Pressure points

In recent years, Iran has also often accused the US and UK of supporting unrest in the oil-rich Khuzestan province.

Of course, it is easier for Iran to point to external reasons for such problems but there is no doubt that the US is seeking pressure points.

"It's their perceptions that matter," Bob Baer, a former CIA officer and columnist for Time magazine who acknowledges that the US is seeking ways of pressuring Iran.

"The Iranian government has been under a lot of pressure, especially from hardliners within the country"
Sadeq Saba
BBC Iran analyst

"Washington in my mind wants to push Iran. I think there's a feeling in Washington that they can make the Iranians back down in Iraq and the rest of the Gulf. They're looking for pressure points. The question is are they (Iran) going to back down or respond?"

The presence of US troops on Iran's border has added to Iran's perception of threat but so have specific incidents like the mysterious disappearance of a former Revolutionary Guards General in Turkey - Western media have suggested he has defected, Iran that he was kidnapped.

The most significant incident came in January when five members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards were seized by US forces in the northern Iraqi town of Irbil.

Other members of the Guards who were picked up were subsequently released but in this case, the US has continued to hold the five men.

"The Iranian government has been under a lot of pressure especially from hardliners within the country," says the BBC's Iran analyst Sadeq Saba.

"People are asking: 'Why they are silent? Why they are not doing anything to get them released?'"

"By going after these guys, Washington knows it's provoking Tehran, it is sticking it in the eye," argues Bob Baer.

"If we wanted to calm the situation down we would have picked them up and set them across the border, not held them."

No exchange

"Just imagine if the Iranians had actually captured American sailors or marines or soldiers, then the situation would be very different because there is no dialogue between the two sides"
Mahan Abedin
Analyst

A recent message from the Iranian Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was interpreted by some as a sign that the Revolutionary Guards would be given greater latitude to take direct action, including perhaps the seizure of British personnel.

A senior US official told the BBC that the five Revolutionary Guards still being detained were being held based on the perception that they posed an imminent threat.

The official also said there had been no discussions of any possible swap of those Guards for the British personnel, a possibility suggested in some newspaper reports.

"I don't think it is ever a good thing to create exchanges of hostages," the official said, pointing in particular to a recent exchange in Afghanistan of Taleban fighters for an Italian hostage.

Unintended consequences

It is not a one-way street and Iran has been seeking out its own pressure points on the US and UK.

The US has long accused Iran of arming militias in Iraq with advanced projectile explosives which have killed many British and American soldiers.

There are other options for the future as well. Analysts in Whitehall have been looking closely for any signs that the technology used to such devastating effect against British personnel in Iraq might also be transferred for use in Afghanistan. So far there is no sign of that happening but officials are alert to the possibility.

As each side seeks pressure points on the other, the dangers grow of escalation, and miscalculation - of a small incident spiralling quickly out of control, particularly between Iran and the US.

"In this particular crisis between Iran and the UK there is a diplomatic track and the two sides can talk and they can sort this out," argues analyst Mahan Abedin.

"However, just imagine if the Iranians had actually captured American sailors or marines or soldiers, then the situation would be very different because there is no dialogue between the two sides... The danger is because the diplomatic track is lacking, an effect could have profound unintended consequences."

Analysts believe both sides are upping the pressure in order to secure the strongest position for when they go to the negotiating table but they also believe that this strategy carries considerable risks, including sparking a conflict.