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Tuesday, 29 August 2006, 19:04 GMT 20:04 UK

The UN's mission impossible?

By William Horsley
World affairs correspondent, BBC News

Kofi Annan, the UN Secretary-General, has warned of the risk of a new war in Lebanon unless Security Council resolution 1701 is implemented in full.

But deliberate ambiguities over key issues contained in that resolution may spell "mission impossible" for Kofi Annan, as he seeks to move all the states in the region towards a long-term political solution.

Kofi Annan in Lebanon

The latest conflict over Lebanon brought sharp arguments among Western nations over the terms of a ceasefire, the text of the resolution, the make-up of a new peacekeeping force, and the mandate of the peacekeepers on the ground.

Key points have still not been made clear.

At last, after last week's emergency meeting between Mr Annan and EU ministers in Brussels, the broad make-up of the expanded Unifil peacekeeping force is known, key parts of it are on their way, and France's President Jacques Chirac says he has received "new guarantees" to enable the mission to be effective.

But some regional experts believe that UN resolution 1701, passed in haste on 11 August for the sake of a "full cessation of hostilities", makes the short-term disarming of Hezbollah more difficult than before.

That is the view of Nadim Shehadi, of Chatham House, London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.

The reason is that the resolution rules out a military solution for the disarming of Hezbollah's fighters, he says.

And in the short term, the hand of Hezbollah has been strengthened.

Its fighting ability in the month-long war showed that it was strong and well-armed. The war also boosted its claim to be a legitimate "resistance" against Israel.

Each country taking part in the expanded Unifil force, led by France, has underlined its refusal to confront Hezbollah fighters to remove their arms.

That is in line with the UN resolution.

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It says the role of the UN force is only to support the Lebanese army, which is responsible for ensuring that the area is not used for any "hostile activities".

Hezbollah is not even mentioned by name in the text.

Even so, European leaders have raised expectations that the force will create a Hezbollah-free buffer zone in southern Lebanon.

The message is confused.

Finland's Foreign Minister, Erkki Tuomioja, said complete disarmament was out of the question in an area where nearly every household has a Kalashnikov.

But the important thing was that "the heavier weapons - rockets and missiles - which are also the threat to Israel, are eliminated".

As Mr Annan pursues his peace quest from Lebanon to Israel and beyond, this and other key issues left unresolved in Resolution 1701 loom large, threatening to unravel the precarious ceasefire. They include:

Mr Shehadi says the international community is saddled with these ambiguities, because the current truce was not to be obtained without them.

So is the UN's peace effort doomed? Not so, he says. Hezbollah might be induced to lay down its weapons in favour of politics if Lebanese people feel truly protected from Israeli attacks without its presence.

The biggest dangers, Mr Shehadi says, are that Israel may decide it is unhappy with the situation at the end of the war and seek "a second round"; Iran and Syria, Hezbollah's main backers, could also dispel hopes of peace if they decide that is in their interests.

So, burning issues have been left to be sorted out after the shooting stopped in Lebanon.

"Now the time has arrived", he says. "The debate is on, both in Lebanon and Israel. And things could go either way".




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