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Wednesday, 28 June 2006, 16:29 GMT 17:29 UK

High price of Palestinian struggle

By Roger Hardy
Middle East analyst, BBC News

Palestinian family evacuates home in Gaza

Many observers are puzzled by the mood of defiance and fatalism among the Palestinians amid the latest crisis in their relationship with Israel.

Many Palestinians sense they have nothing to lose.

Suffering is nothing new to the Palestinians, especially in the crowded, impoverished towns and refugee camps of the Gaza Strip.

They have grown used to economic hardship - and to Israeli retaliation following some act of violence by a militant group.

By and large, they have lost faith in the ability of their own - or the world's - politicians to bring an end to their plight.

These things may explain the psychology of Gaza.

But the plain fact is that, over recent months, the Palestinians have paid a high price for defiance - and are likely to continue to do so.

Election consequences

The election of a Hamas-led government in January was not primarily a message to the outside world.

It was a message of rejection directed at Hamas' more nationalist rival, Fatah, which had dominated Palestinian politics for decades and had become tainted by corruption.

Ehud Olmert

Hamas' victory had little to do with its Islamist ideology or its stance on Israel, and everything to do with the perception that it was more honest and competent than Fatah.

But whatever the voters' intentions, the election had consequences.

The United States, the European Union and other countries declared they could not do business with a party formally committed to Israel's destruction.

They broke off contact with the Palestinian Authority and cut off the economic aid on which it is heavily dependent.

As a result, most of the authorities' employees - teachers, doctors, civil servants and members of the security services - have not been paid their due salaries since March.

While the economy has slumped, there have been violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah gunmen - and a power struggle between the government and the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas.

It is too soon to tell whether the political accord reached between the various factions on Tuesday will end the factional strife and lead to the creation of a national unity government.

A good deal of bitterness remains.

Prisoners of events

The Palestinians have also paid a high price for Hamas' continuing commitment to the armed struggle - and its refusal to rein in its own gunmen or those of other militant groups.

Fatah militants in Gaza

The firing of clumsy home-made rockets from Gaza into Israel may have had little material effect, but piled up the political pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to act more firmly.

Israeli retaliatory strikes killing more than a dozen Palestinian civilians only served to inflame the Palestinian mood.

When militants attacked an Israeli army post on Sunday, capturing a young Israeli soldier and killing two others, many Palestinians applauded.

The attack stepped up the pressure on Mr Olmert to crack down harder.

For the moment, ordinary Palestinians are prisoners of events.

They wait to see what the fate of the young soldier will be, and what form Israeli retaliation may take.

But this latest crisis may well radicalise the mood and make it harder for President Abbas to convince his people that moderation pays.



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