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BBC News Online: World: Middle East


Monday, 3 December, 2001, 18:37 GMT

Analysis: Arafat's hard choices


Jerusalem blast
Some 25 people were killed in weekend attacks
Frank Gardner

The Israeli missile attacks on Palestinian targets have left the Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat seriously weakened.

The attacks, which came in response to Palestinian suicide bombings at the weekend, reportedly destroyed three of his helicopters, limiting his freedom of movement.

But when the missiles smashed into his empty helicopters they did more than just physical damage.



If he opts for armed resistance then the Israelis will likely assassinate him within hours
They reminded the ageing Palestinian leader who is boss in the region - and it's not him. The Israelis have shown they can strike anywhere at any time.

Beleaguered and depressed, Yasser Arafat now has two choices - to co-operate with the Israelis and crack down even harder on Islamic militants suspected of planning attacks on Israelis - or to join the militants themselves.

Either choice could well spell his own death sentence.

No half-measures

If Mr Arafat continues to arrest the militants he risks sparking a Palestinian civil war.

If he opts for armed resistance then the Israelis will likely assassinate him within hours.

In the end, Yasser Arafat will probably do what he has always done. He will try to fudge the issue by making some arrests, but not quite enough to threaten his own power base.

Now though, the Israelis are saying that such half measures are not enough, that more effective action is needed.

In the words of the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, Mr Arafat is now facing his moment of truth.


Related to this story:
Israel holds crisis talks (03 Dec 01 | Middle East) US diplomacy put to the test (03 Dec 01 | Middle East) Leaders condemn Israel bomb attacks (02 Dec 01 | Middle East) In pictures: Israel blasts (02 Dec 01 | Middle East) Viewpoint: Ball in Arafat's court (02 Dec 01 | Middle East)


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