Osteoporosis risk formula devised

Using the mathematical equation, Australian scientists could calculate a woman's risk with 75% accuracy.

The researchers, writing in the journal Radiology, said the formula could help inform treatment for women with the bone disease.

Osteoporosis sufferers are more likely to suffer fractures because their bones are less dense than healthy people's.

"We have derived an equation that successfully predicted 75% of fractures in women"
Margaret Henry, University of Melbourne

It mainly affects women after the menopause, but men and younger people can get osteoporosis too.

Wrists, hips and the spine are the most common sites for fractures in people with osteoporosis. A range of treatments exist, including hormone replacement therapy, vitamin D and calcium supplements, and non-hormonal medicines.

The team from the University of Melbourne looked at 231 women with osteoporosis who had suffered bone fractures and 448 women who had not.

The scientists discovered that factors such as bone density levels in the spine and hip, weight, and the number of previous fractures sustained were related to the likelihood of breaking a bone.

By taking these measurements into account, the team was able to develop a predictive formula.

Fractures to increase

The study's lead author, Margaret Henry, a statistician at the University of Melbourne, said: "We have derived an equation that successfully predicted 75% of fractures in women, two years after their initial measurements were taken.

"As the average age of the population increases, the number of fractures attributable to osteoporosis is set to increase dramatically.

"The ability to predict fracture risk, based on simple clinical measurements, will assist in targeting treatment for people at highest risk, thus helping reduce the burden of this disease."

The group now plan to develop a similar equation for men with osteoporosis.

A spokeswoman for the National Osteoporosis Society said: "There is a lot of work being done in this area because we know that measuring bone density is not the perfect predictor of who will go on to break bones because of osteoporosis.

"The World Health Organization is due to publish an international report drawing together all the other risk factors that play a part in assessing how likely it is that someone will break a bone over a 10 year period.

"In this way we should have a much more accurate way of trying to prevent the broken bones that generally affect the hip and spine and which can have such a major impact on people's quality of life."

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