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Analysis: What next for the PKK?

The PKK's statement supporting calls to end its armed struggle appears to open up the possibility of a resolution to a 15-year conflict which has claimed more than 30,000 lives in south-eastern Turkey.

The PKK appeared to be taken by surprise by a statement by imprisoned leader Abdullah Ocalan, and it took two days to formulate a response.

It has now confirmed it will work towards implementing his goals. It followed his lead by avoiding linking any pullout to specific political concessions from the Turkish Government.

Divided opinions

By publicly backing Mr Ocalan, the PKK has avoided giving the impression of a split within the movement. But some observers suggest its failure to specify any timetable may reflect a heated debate over future policy.

Some PKK supporters, including many Kurds in Europe, have enthusiastically backed their leader's attempts to transform the PKK from a military to a political organisation.

But some military commanders are believed to oppose such measures, fearing that abandoning the 15-year armed struggle without any concessions from Turkey would suggest a complete surrender.

Who is in control?

The PKK response could simply be a way of playing for time.

There is also the question of how much control Abdullah Ocalan, or other PKK leaders, have over the rank and file.

Mr Ocalan stated during his trial that renegade PKK units had carried out attacks, against his orders.

If the PKK were to withdraw, they may have difficulty finding safe haven. Even if they reached neighbouring northern Iraq safely they could face an escalation of Turkey's current attacks against their bases there.

Syria, which apparently expelled Mr Ocalan last year under Turkish pressure, is unlikely to welcome the Kurdish guerrillas back.

And Tehran has recently been under increasing pressure to halt what Ankara alleges is a rise in PKK activity in Iran.

Deal

There's been some speculation among Turkish journalists that Mr Ocalan may have done a deal with the state in a bid to save his own skin.

Although he's already been sentenced to death on treason charges, it has yet to be decided whether he will actually be executed.

But the PKK leader's lawyers have denied that he contacted either the Turkish Government or his own commanders before issuing his call for an end to the armed struggle.

And the Turkish authorities continue to insist that it will not strike any deal with a man it regards as a terrorist.

Previous PKK ceasefires have petered out into sporadic fighting, with the guerrilla movement saying it was forced to act in self defence.

It is possible that this could happen again.

Meanwhile, the Turkish Government is unlikely to believe in any PKK withdrawal from Turkey until it actually happens.

For the time being, it can afford to bide its time and wait for the PKK to make the next move.

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