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10:36 GMT, Wednesday, 20 February 2008

Record inflow to public finances

Money

The UK government recorded its biggest monthly surplus to date on the public accounts in January, boosted by higher corporate tax receipts.

The public sector recorded a net cash repayment of £22.1bn, more than £2bn higher than expected by analysts.

The figures were boosted by a 20% increase in corporate tax receipts - which are paid quarterly - compared with the same month one year ago.

The figures will help the chancellor meet a budget deficit target of £38bn.

Both key measures of the UK's public finances showed a bigger surplus than expected, latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show.

"It doesn't get them out of the hole but it's a slight reprieve for now"
Adam Chester, Bank of Scotland

The government's preferred measure, public sector net borrowing, showed a repayment of £14.1bn, against an expected figure of £9.75bn.

January is traditionally the strongest month for government tax revenues, with both corporate receipts and individual self-assessment tax payments due.

Worries for the future

However, many economists are concerned that the projected slowdown in UK growth, due to the credit crunch, will weaken government tax revenue, and the public finances, in the future.

"It doesn't get them out of the hole, but it's a slight reprieve for now," said Adam Chester of the Bank of Scotland.

"But it doesn't factor in the slowdown in growth and the impact that will have on the public finances."

Overall, the public finances are in deficit by £26.5bn in the first 10 months of this financial year, compared to £20.5bn for the same period in 2007.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies, an independent think-tank, has forecast that the government will need to raise an additional £8bn in taxes in the next financial year to meet its targets.

It has forecast public sector net borrowing of £40.5bn for this financial year, and says it is likely to increase to £41bn in the next two years.

Alistair Darling will announce his first Budget on 12 March.

Fiscal rules

The government is also under fire for the way it has reinterpreted its own fiscal rules.

The nationalisation of Northern Rock has meant that it will breach its self-imposed government debt ceiling of 40% of GDP.

And the "golden rule", which says that the government should only borrow to invest over the economic cycle as a whole, is also under threat.

The Treasury is starting a new economic cycle with a large deficit, and a prolonged slowdown will make it more difficult for it to return to surplus over the period as a whole.

This also gives the Chancellor little scope for fiscal measures to stimulate the economy if the downturn turns more severe.

"The slowdown in the economy will hit the revenue side of the equation hard, making it much more difficult to the Chancellor to attain his forecasts," said Peter Spencer, chief economic advisor to the Ernst & Young ITEM club.




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