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Thursday, 1 June 2006, 17:09 GMT 18:09 UK

US economy gives confused signals

US shoppers Latest US figures show a mixed picture of the world's largest economy, though analysts say it is still growing fast enough for another interest rate rise.

A string of US retailers said May sales topped forecasts, and a separate report showed productivity was higher than first thought in 2006's first quarter.

However, manufacturing slipped at the same time as unemployment rose.

The state of the US has worried markets over past weeks, prompting a global sell-off that is threatening to return.

Slowing down

"The trend today looks like confusion to me," said Scott Merritt of JPMorgan Asset Management.

At the heart of investor concerns is the fear that the US economy is growing fast enough to merit another interest rate, but not quickly enough to absorb it without a significant effect on consumer demand and corporate profit growth.

The US economy expanded by an annual rate of 5.3% during the first three months of this year, according to government figures.

"The market is still pricing in a better-than-not chance of a hike in June"
Bob Lynch of HSBC

Should that slow significantly, then global growth figures will also need to be recalibrated.

David Huether, chief economist with the National Association of Manufacturers, said that: "The outlook we have for the economy is to decelerate through the year."

Nice surpise

A lot will depend on how hard consumers spend in coming months.

A survey of 39 retailers found that 25 beat expectations, including JC Penney.

Wal-Mart reported sales rose 2.3% on the same month a year ago, but warned higher fuel prices were making customers less willing to spend.

Woman waving a US flag

Retail analyst Jharonne Martis of Thomson Financial said there had been some "nice surprises", especially clothing sales figures.

"The consumer is solid. Despite the worries of gasoline, consumers are still consuming," Ms Martis said.

In another welcome piece of news, the Labor Department said productivity in the first quarter of 2006 had been higher than first thought.

Productivity rose at an annualised rate of 3.7% between January and March, rather than the 3.2% originally stated. This compares with a 0.3% fall seen in the last three months of 2005.

The figures represent actual productivity from workers, just as retail figures refer to actual sales.

Good verus bad

Other data presents a less rosy picture and the US Institute of Supply Management said its manufacturing activity index slipped to 54.4 in May from 57.3 in April. The prices paid component jumped to 77 from 71.5 in April.

The Labor Department announced that wages grew 1.6% in the first quarter, below the 2.5% reported earlier, and the number of workers filing unemployment benefits posted a surprise climb last week.

That came after a survey by the National Retail Federation last month found more than three out of four US consumers were curbing their spending because of the steep rising cost of petrol.

And earlier this week, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index showed that shoppers felt gloomier about the current situation than at anytime since last year's hurricanes. They were even less hopeful for the next six months.

Anxieties were driven by concern over the impact of paying almost $3 for a gallon of petrol, as well as worries about the availability of jobs.

Analysts said that a mood of uncertainty was likely to hang over investors until the Federal Reserve meets later this month.

"The market is still pricing in a better-than-not chance of a hike in June," said Bob Lynch of HSBC.



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