Even as US central bankers met in Washington to cut interest rates by another quarter-point, signs of a reinvigorating economy were already filtering through the American economy, some economists say.

That is despite a worsening employment picture, currently showing the US unemployment rate at 5.7%, and a revised growth number revealing the nation's economy contracted substantially in the July-September period.

But it is all par for the course, says Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at US-based High Frequency Economics, who argues that the nation's unemployment rate will continue to rise even as the recovery progresses as it is a lagging indicator.

"[It's] telling you what's already happened - not telling you about the future," says Mr Shepherdson, who prefers to eye the stock market in predicting what is going to happen next in the US economy.

The pronouncement is all the more compelling because it has been but two weeks since the recession was officially declared to have started in March.

Rising expectations

Stock prices have risen dramatically since falling to their lows in the weeks following the terror attacks. And technology stocks have been leading the charge back up just as they led the economy down.

The rising prices of US stocks in recent weeks is indicative of Americans general optimism about the fate of the US economy, Mr Shepherdson says.

"What it's telling you about the future is consumers' expectations, which appear now to be rising," according to recent surveys, Mr Shepherdson told BBC News Online.

Just as a perfect storm of factors contributed to pulling the economy into recession, it appears the same is happening in reverse to drive growth upward again.

Combined effects

Aside from the rise in stock prices, there are the cuts by the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, in interest rates, which have resulted in huge savings for consumers who refinanced higher interest mortgages.

Lower oil prices, too, are contributing to savings for consumers, who then spend the savings on other items, further driving the economy.

Prices at the pump have fallen around 43 cents a gallon since the terror attacks of 11 September to a nationwide average of $1.10 a gallon, the US Department of Energy has reported.

In addition, the stimulus provided by tax cuts and money flowing from the government, have also spurred the economy toward recovery, leading some economists to conclude the recession has hit bottom.

"The odds that the economy has already bottomed are higher than [many economists] believe," says Ed Hyman at economic-forecasting-firm ISI Group, who is predicting the nation's economy will contract by just 0.5% during the October-December quarter, less than previous estimates of a 1% decline.

Stimulus package

Despite the positive omens spied by these and other analysts, President George W Bush is still calling on Congress to pass additional stimulus measures to drive growth.

So keen is he on pushing the package through, Mr Bush crafted a compromise plan and submitted it to Capitol Hill on Tuesday, urging lawmakers to pass it.

Mr Bush relented on several key points that had the stimulus plan in a logjam over the last several weeks.

Chief among his concessions were an extension of jobless benefits as well as health care benefits, targeting lower income workers for tax breaks and provisions to allow business to write-off new equipment purchases.

A senior Bush official said the revised plan was designed to "jumpstart" the ailing economy.

But if Messrs Shepherdson and Hyman have it right, the jumpstart may come long after the economic engine has begun heading down the road.