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BBC News Online: Business


Saturday, 1 December, 2001, 23:49 GMT

House price falls spread


Price change by county
Sarah Toyne

Recent house price falls experienced in many London boroughs are now "trickling out" to the home counties, according to new housing data obtained by BBC News Online.



Ongoing fears of a recession compounding fears of terrorism, have kept buyers at bay in the UK housing market
John Wriglesworth, Hometrack's housing economist

Seventeen out of 23 southern counties reported house price falls in the month up to 15 November.

In contrast, all but two northern counties continued to report price rises, although the rate of growth was more modest compared to last month.

According to a survey of 4,000 estate agents by housing market analysts Hometrack, house prices fell by 0.1% nationally.

London blight

The London Borough of Hammersmith and Fulham experienced the biggest price change, falling by 2%.

Other parts of south west London and west London also experienced price dips.

In Richmond-upon-Thames, for example, prices fell by 1.7%.

While in Ealing, prices fell by 0.7%.

Areas most susceptible to recent price falls, according to Hometrack's Economist John Wriglesworth, were those that experienced rapid growth over the last two years, especially areas at the top end of the market.

Mr Wriglesworth said: "Ongoing fears of a recession compounding fears of terrorism, have kept buyers at bay in the UK housing market."

Prices have continued to fall in prime London and commuter areas, following concerns over job security.

North versus south

Price falls reported in parts of London last month have now spread out to areas popular with London commuters.

Prices in Berkshire were down by 1% and in Surrey by 0.9%.


Top 5 small regions
Derbyshire: 0.4% - "Slight slowdown"
Nottinghamshire: 0.4% - "Regional investment feeding economy"
South Lincolnshire: 0.4% - "Strong retirement and new homes"
Staffordshire: 0.4% - "No drop off in applicant levels"
Cornwall: 0.3% - "Increase in interest for relocations"

In contrast, the largest rises were experienced in the north of the country.

Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, South Lincolnshire and Staffordshire - each reported a 0.4% rise.

However, the rate of growth has begun to slow.

In September, for example, Derbyshire had experienced the highest price rises overall.

Prices rose in the month up to 15 October by 0.8% in Derbyshire, but over the last months the rate of growth has now fallen to 0.4%.

House price rises have also slowed in Nottinghamshire, which experienced price rises of 0.6% during the same period.

Supply and demand

The survey reports that in many areas supply is outstripping demand.

For the second month this year, supply of properties is greater than the number of active buyers registered with estate agents.

Hometrack said that this could lead to further price falls for the next few months at least.

The market has also moved more in favour of buyers.

The proportion of properties achieving their full asking price dropped further this month from just over 95% to 94.7%.


Bottom 5 small regions
Central London & the City: -1.2% - "Sellers have had to reduce prices in an overheated market"
Berkshire: -1.0% - "Knock-on effects from London and redundancies in Reading"
Surrey: -0.9%- "Knee jerk reaction to 11 September"
Isle of Wight: -0.9% - "Traditional slowdown because of Winter"
West London: 0.9% - "Pre-Christmas effect"

While many parts of London have experienced their second month of price falls, there were two exceptions.

Prices rose by 0.1% in Brent and by 0.3% in Islington.

Mr Wriglesworth said that "fundamentals" such as low unemployment rates, lowest mortgage rates for nearly 50 years and the prospect of more interest rate cuts should maintain the housing market.

"We are confident that house price rises will resume next year, albeit at a more moderate rate than the past 12 months.

Hometrack has retained its 2002 national forecast of 5% growth. Price achieved as a % of the asking price


Related to this story:
UK houses affordable says bank (29 Nov 01 | Business) UK house prices start to fall (06 Dec 01 | Business) Terror attacks shake housing market (28 Oct 01 | Business)


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