For the first time in over eight years, unemployment could be on an upward trend.

The spate of high profile job losses finally seems to be making its presence felt in the dole queue.

The number of people claming benefit rose by over 4,000 in October.

That jobless count can, however, be misleading, as it depends on people being able to comply with the (increasingly stringent) criteria for receiving benefit.

Even the government admits that an alternative and wider measure - known as the ILO one - is more reliable.

That is based on a survey of households, and classes someone as unemployed if he or she is available for work, and has looked for a job in recent weeks.

It also shows unemployment has risen over recent months, by an average of 10,000 per month.

Services feeling the pinch too

Job losses are of course nothing new in manufacturing.

The recession-hit sector has been shedding workers for the last few years, and has lost over 300,000 jobs in the last two years.

The size of the manufacturing workforce is now at its lowest since records began almost 20 years ago.

However, rising service sector employment meant that unemployment was on a downward trend until very recently.

But with the jobless total now appearing to be at turning point, it is a sign that services jobs too are being shed.

Under pressure

Even before the 11 September, employment was being squeezed in areas such as financial services and tourism.

Since then, airlines and other sectors have added to the total. Airlines are estimated to have cut over 70,000 posts.

But given the scale of the job losses announced in recent months it may be surprising that unemployment hasn't started rising sooner - or faster.

Behind the numbers

So what is going on? There are a number of possible explanations.

First, job cuts tend to get far more coverage than the creation of new jobs. And despite the headlines, there are still - believe it or not - new positions appearing.

Most recently DIY chain B&Q has created 4,000 jobs, and other household names, such as Asda, are also creating positions.

It may be that the headlines are giving us an overly bleak impression of the labour market.

Time lag

Even if that is not the case, it may be taking time for the job losses to feed through to the unemployment figures because those laid off may not qualify for benefits immediately.

Or, if they have large redundancy packages, or have large savings, they may not qualify at all.

In that case, there may be a lag before they appear in the claimant count figures, or they may not ever show up in them.

At a time when those being laid off include some very high earners, the ILO numbers are likely to paint a more accurate picture.

More accurate?

And certainly, ILO numbers have shown a larger rise in the jobless total in the last few months - and they too may be affected by a lag.

If so, the post-11 September lay-offs could result in a sharp rise in unemployment in the coming months.

Or it even may be the case that the ILO count fails to capture the full scale of the job losses.

During the early 1990s recession , thousands of those who were made redundant put off, or gave up looking for work.

They were counted in the ILO survey, but come under the term "economically inactive", not unemployed, as they were not seeking or available for work.

Rising trend

Whatever the true picture, economists think the number of those out of work will rise, perhaps by about a quarter of a million or so in the next year.

While clearly, this would be very bad news for those directly affected, it would be a small rise by the standards of previous downturns.

The number of people in work would still be close to 28 million. And unemployment would still be among the lowest in Europe.

Such a rise would be consistent with the idea that the UK is in for a slowdown rather than recession.

But it is at the point when unemployment is rising that the risk of a sharper slowdown for the economy may occur.

As the job losses intensify, even those still in employment start to worry about their prospects - and tighten their belts.

Because consumer spending is keeping the economy afloat, the impact of unemployment figures could be crucial for the continued growth of the UK economy.