BBC News Online: Business

UK unemployment expected to rise

Jobless figures are expected to start rising again

Experts say the rising trend is set to continue for some time as the economic fall out from the terrorist attacks in the US takes its toll.

Economists are forecasting a rise in the number of people claiming benefit of around 5,000 in September to about 950,000.

Last month the unemployment rate fell to 3.1%, the lowest level since August 1975.

Upward trend expected

Although last month's unemployment claimant figure dropped, the jobless figure as measured by International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards rose.

Analysts believe this change in the direction of the ILO figure marked a turning point for the UK labour market.

Several high profile UK companies such as Marconi and British Airways have announced big job cuts this year.

Recent surveys have shown that the recession currently being experienced in manufacturing is now beginning to affect the service sector.

And the impact of last month's terrorist attacks is still feeding through to the UK's economy.

"For some time I have been anticipating an upturn," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist at Gerrard.

"We have seen a stream of redundancy announcements since the beginning of the year and with natural wastage and long lags, it is difficult to know when people are going to hit the benefits office."