The problem of North Korea has suddenly been thrust to the top of the US and regional agenda with the expectation by US intelligence agencies that Pyongyang will soon test-launch a new ballistic missile.
The North Koreans are believed to have fuelled a Taepodong-2 rocket with an estimated range of up to 6,000 km (3,700 miles).
That could reach parts of the United States.
A major concern and question, to which the answer is not known, is whether one day the North Koreans, who say they have developed a nuclear bomb, could miniaturise it and put it on the top of such a missile.
"There is a very strong likelihood that North Korea will test a missile. The fuelling means that it must have decided to take this step as it is hard to siphon the fuel out and it has a window of about a month," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London and a former senior US State Department official covering proliferation issues.
"The North... wants to show the world and its own people that it cannot be pushed around"
"But there might also be a political motive in that the North could be reacting to pressure put on it financially by the US and wants to show the world and its own people that it cannot be pushed around."
It is also possible that the North is using the missile as a device to try to get direct talks with the United States. Washington rejects these in favour of the six country structure. North Korea might have drawn conclusions from the tactics of Iran which has recently been offered direct contact with the US.
Warning
The impact of a launch would be considerable.
Most immediately, there would bound to be a reaction from the United States.
It has already warned that a test, which would end a self-imposed North Korean moratorium since the 1998 launch, would be "provocative".
For a start the US could take further steps to chase down the North's money-laundering operations.
The long arm of the US Treasury has been after these before and the North does not like it.
The US, perhaps with Japan, would also go to the Security Council, though whether any action could be taken there must be doubtful as China, which always urges caution in dealing with the North, has a veto.
Japan too would react, perhaps by cutting trade with North Korea.
The impact on the stalled six-party talks on North Korea is likely to be serious, and the future of such talks would be even more uncertain.
The North had agreed not to test-launch any missiles while the talks were in progress.
They are currently in limbo anyway.
Missile shield
Last year North Korea said it would agree to give up its nuclear weapons development in exchange for aid and security guarantees - but then announced the next day that it wanted a civilian reactor as well and in advance of any move it might make.
Since then, there have been no more talks.
There is also a more long-term implication.
The previous test in 1998 led directly to an increased determination by the Bush administration to develop an anti-missile defence shield.
In 2002, President Bush withdrew the US from the 1972 anti-ballistic missile treaty, and some elements of the defence system have now been installed in Alaska and California, though their effectiveness is in some doubt.
Funding for the system is running at nearly $8bn this year, more than double what it was in 1998.
"A launch of the Taepodong-2 would give a boost to those supporting missile defence in the US," said Mr Fitzpatrick.
Paul.Reynolds-INTERNET@bbc.co.uk
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