Who bombed Bali?

Analysis

Western intelligence experts are scrabbling to determine who was behind this weekend's explosions on the Indonesian island of Bali.

Suspicions are focusing on extremist Islamic groups, notably Jemaah Islamiah which has been campaigning for a pan-Islamic state in the region.

When a massive bomb goes off in a country with several violent Islamic groups, initial suspicions inevitably fall on al-Qaeda.

Osama Bin Laden's organisation has a known presence in Indonesia, and local militants are believed to have trained in Afghanistan.

The shadowy regional group, Jemaah Islamiah, has been campaigning for a pan-Islamic super state, stretching right across South-east Asia, to the southern Philippines.

That is a goal which al-Qaeda's leadership would definitely approve of.

East Timor revenge

But a Bali nightclub is an unlikely target for al-Qaeda.

It has no strategic value, it does not hurt a Western government, and it was not a favoured haunt of al-Qaeda's preferred targets: Americans and Jews.

In an effort to find who is responsible, Britain is dispatching its own counter-terrorism experts to Bali.

The British Government says it is looking at every possibility but has yet to identify the culprits.

But one possible explanation for the bombing comes from a Saudi source who prefers not to be named.

He told the BBC that many Indonesians blamed Australian troops for the loss of their former territory, East Timor.

He said these were Indonesian nationalists bent on revenge, and that the resort of Bali would be an obvious soft target, causing high casualties amongst Australians.